Saturday, March 26, 2011

NCAA TOURNAMENT PREDICTIONS

MY PUBLISHED PICKS

    Before each day's NCAA tournament play, I proffered my choices of expected winners. Of course none of my "money brackets" matched those exact predictions. Technically that would be impossible because I missed calling the winner in eight first round games. Except for Round One, my predictions essentially are "rebracket" choices. For simplicity's sake, we'll ignore that fallacious detail.

    Below is a summary of my round-by-round prophecies.

ROUND ONE (25-7)

    Thursday (losing picks in red)

        West Virginia beat Clemson

        Butler beat Old Dominion

        Morehead State beat Louisville

        Temple beat Penn State

        Kentucky beat Princeton

        Pitt beat UNC-Asheville

        Richmond beat Vanderbilt

        San Diego State beat Northern Colorado

        Florida beat UC-Santa Barbara

        BYU beat Wofford

        UConn beat Bucknell

        Wisconsin beat Belmont

        UCLA beat Michigan State

        Gonzaga beat St. Johns

        Cincinnati beat Missouri

        Kansas State beat Utah State

    Friday

        Texas beat Oakland

        Michigan beat Tennessee

        Notre Dame beat Akron

        George Mason beat Villanova

        Arizona beat Memphis

        Duke beat Hampton

        Florida State beat Texas A&M

        Ohio State beat UT-San Antonio

        Kansa beat Boston U

        North Carolina beat Long Island

        Purdue beat St. Peter's

        Marquette beat Xavier

        Illinois beat UNLV

        Washington beat Georgia

        VCU beat Georgetown

        Syracuse beat Indiana State

    My Round One record was reasonably accurate. Surely no one except Morehead State fans picked them to beat Louisville. I took Missouri based on my heart, not my head. The mess around Bruce Pearl probably affected the Tennessee-Michigan outcome. I thought 'Nova would break out of its late-season slump. Wrong. I vastly underestimated FSU's defense, which blunted the Aggies' offense. I had Illinois losing because they lost to Missouri; and I thought Georgetown would rally for a win with Chris Wright's return. Wrong again.

ROUND TWO (10-6)

    SATURDAY

        Kentucky beat West Virginia

        Florida beat UCLA

        Richmond beat Morehead State

        San Diego State beat Temple

        Butler beat Pitt

        BYU beat Gonzaga

        Wisconsin beat Kansas State

        UConn beat Cincinnati

`    SUNDAY

        North Carolina beat Washington

        Duke beat Michigan

        Ohio State beat George Mason

        Arizona beat Texas

        VCU beat Purdue

        Marquette beat Syracuse

        Kansas beat Illinois

        Florida State beat Notre Dame

    I should have known Pitt would fall out early. They always do. Even with the loss of Davies, BYU was stronger than I expected. K-State gave one away to the Badgers. I kept expecting UConn to run out of gas. Marquette's win wasn't really a surprise. Notre Dame's loss killed me in my "money brackets."

ROUND THREE (5-3)

    THURSDAY

        UConn beat San Diego State

        Florida beat BYU

        Arizona beat Duke

        Butler beat Wisconsin

    FRIDAY    

        North Carolina beat Marquette

        Kansas beat Richmond

        Kentucky beat Ohio State

        VCU beat Florida State

    Thursday I picked every team that would hurt my brackets. Even Florida can't help me now.

Friday's early games were easy picks. Of course I had the Buckeyes going deep in four of my five pools; and I finally got on FSU's bandwagon just as the wheels fell off.

    After three rounds and 56 games, I stand at 40-16. Next up: playing the odds. That should be interesting. For those willing to put money on college basketball, a word of advice: I am the world's worst gambler.

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