NCAA BRACKETOLOGY

A SKELETON BRACKET TAKES SHAPE

    As the tsunami that is "Selection Sunday" fast approaches, my skeleton bracket is beginning to flesh out; but conference tournament results already are necessitating emergency modifications.

    Alabama-Birmingham's early exit from the Conference USA tourney has forced me to rethink the Blazers' standing. As late as Wednesday, I had them solidly in as 10^th seed; but somehow I had let Clemson slip by unnoticed. Neither team has any particularly strong wins; but the Tigers crept up the ACC standings to put themselves into position for an NCAA bid. A strong Mountain West team, Colorado State (19-12, 9-7) has fallen off the bracket with an early loss in the conference tournament. Today I drop UAB and insert Clemson. Michigan's late run in the Big Ten puts them into Colorado State's slot.

    I have tried to stay away from Joe Lunardi's picks in an effort arrive at an independently-constructed bracket. The bracketology guru has six ACC teams in: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College and Virginia Tech. To my thinking, BC and VaTech have always been a bit "bubbly" because, until the Tarheels caught fire, the ACC was somewhat "down" this year. But both have some quality wins when compared to others on the cusp.     

    My "last four in" are UTEP, Georgia, Michigan State and St. Mary's. They are slotted into the two 12-seed play-in games. [Editor's Note: The Official NCAA Tournament Bracket still has two "play-in" games listed as "TBD" (To Be Determined.)] Colorado State, UAB, Marshall and Southern Miss are ranked 69-72 on my watch list. The Georgia-Alabama game has serious implications for two teams that have been floating on the bubble for the past two weeks.

    Ohio State is my top #1 seed, and Kansas has a lock on another top seed. Despite Pitt's loss yesterday, its body of work warrants a #1 seed. If North Carolina wins the ACC tournament, the Tarheels, based on their strong play down the stretch, will receive serious consideration for a #1 seed. Notre Dame may take that spot if they win the Big East tourney. The Irish are playing at an unbelievably high level and it's one of the best passing (and catching) teams in the nation.

    For the most part, automatic qualifiers from the "other" conferences have been placed in lower tier of seeds (13-16). The exceptions are Butler and Old Dominion. Today I have Butler, last year's national runnerup, at a nine in the West against 8^th-seeded Utah State, a third team from the strong Mountain West in the Top 25. ODU (27-6, 14-4 and winners of the Colonial Conference is a 7^th seed matched against a 10 in the Southeast Region. Today that team is Memphis, a Conference USA team that may have to beat UTEP to stay in contention for a bid. One of those teams will probably be relegated to the NIT.
    Not unlike that of the official selection committee, my "Sunday Bracket" must be refined over the next 2. The outcomes of key matchups in the major conferences could have moderate impact on a few teams still in the running for inclusion in the NCAA tournament. Some games in "mid-major" tourneys could have serious implications. By most accounts, the automatic bids still to be determined in the so-called "minor" leagues will have little or no effect on those teams still floating in the bubbles.

    Technical difficulties prevent inclusion of my projected pairings in this article, but they appear separately in another of today's posts, which appears immediately below this entry.