Thursday, December 22, 2011

TIGERS TRY TO REMAIN UNBEATEN


 

    Going into tonight's game against Illinois in St. Louis, surprising Missouri (11-0 and ranked 9th) leads the nation in scoring (87.9/game); shooting (52.6%); and margin of victory (27.7).

    The Tigers have won the last two Braggin' Rights games but trail the all-time series 14-27. Michael Dixon, Mizzou's superb 6th man, says he doesn't plan to lose to the Illini, "ever".

    Frank Haith, in his first year at the helm at Missouri, has sold the undersized and undermanned Tigers on a philosophy much different than that of the departed Mike Anderson. The 2011-12 Tigers run a solid half-court offense and half-court defense, having abandoned Anderson's frenetic "40 minutes of hell" style of play.

    Whereas the full-tilt style of the past few years caused some problems for opponents, the system was ultimately neutralized as opposing coaches found ways to break down Anderson's strategy with easy back-door opportunities when Mizzou overplayed the passing lanes.

     Partly out of necessity (Missouri will dress just nine players tonight) but primarily out of coaching philosophy, Haith's system still relies on Mizzou's quickness at the guard position, but the defense is much more fundamentally sound. MU is sixth nationally with 10.4 steals per game, leading to easy scoring chances that have vaulted the Tigers to the top of the offensive stats.

    MU's undersized Tigers have handled all comers in Haith's first year at the helm. But the Illini (11-1) are ranked 25th and have more size and depth than any team the Tigers have faced this season. Illinois' only loss of the season was to UNLV (21st), victor over North Carolina. Illinois edged Cornell, 64-60, Monday in Bloomington.

    Marcus Denmon is being mentioned by some pundits as an All-American candidate. The senior guard, an All-Big 12 selection last year, leads four Tigers in double-digit scoring with 19.6 per game; and he gets his points in every way imaginable: three-pointers (45.8%), free throws (91.7%), drives to the basket and within the scope of Haith's structured half-court offense. His tough-as-nails floor game includes solid defense and rebounding (5.3/game), usually against bigger matchups.

    Ricardo Ratliffe has benefitted from Haith's coaching, as well. The 6-8 senior "center" is among national leaders in field goal percentage (76.9), and his post play is vastly improved, boosting his rebounding numbers (7.2/game). It helps that Phil Pressey has a year's experience and also benefits from the half-court sets Haith favors. Matt Pressey, "Flip's" older brother, has been starting and adds more than five boards and eight points a game.

    Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Haith's system has been Kim English, out of the funk of Anderson's dog house. When Laurence Bowers went down with a season-ending knee injury before the season started, English was forced to play out of position and take on the role of "power forward" instead of his accustomed spot as roving gunner. Listed at 6-6, English has played heady defense against bigger players, has shown a new-found willingness to battle on the boards and gets his 16 points a game within the context of the offense.

    Dixon is first off the bench and, after a career high 30-point outburst against William & Mary, averages 12.6 points and 2.3 steals per game. His contributions aren't all in the stats, though. His energy on defense often leads to turnovers and fast break opportunities.

    Steve Moore also brings some fire off the bench and has been steady, if unspectacular, when he comes in to spell Ratliffe.

    Bruce Weber's Illini have been great on defense, too. They are giving up only 57.7 points a game (23rd) while holding opponents to just 38.5% from the field.

    In a game that usually has a bit of a tournament feel but seldom follows form, Mizzou is a 7-point favorite. Should the Tigers make it three in a row over Illinois and win at Old Dominion next week, they could go into their final Big 12 Conference season with the program's best record in 30 years.

    

Saturday, April 2, 2011

NCAA SEMIFINALS

    The most improbable Final Four in NCAA history tips off tonight when Virginia Commonwealth, seeded 11th, meets 8th-seeded Butler in the first game. Kentucky, a #4 seed, plays Connecticut, the highest remaining seed at #3, in the nightcap.

    VCU, one of the last teams invited to dance, looks for its sixth tournament win, which ordinarily would mean a championship; but under the new 68-team format, the Rams were one of four teams to advance from the play-in game. Butler makes its second straight Final Four appearance after losing to Duke in last year's championship game.

    UConn, behind the inspirational play of junior guard Kemba Walker, seeks its 10th straight win.

Jim Calhoun's Huskies won five games in five days to take the Big East Tournament and have shown no sign of letting up. John Calipari's young Wildcats gelled late to earn a shot at another championship.

    In predicting the Regional finals, Kentucky was my only correct pick. I didn't think Butler could repeat last year's success; Kansas was just too good for VCU; and I've been waiting for UConn to run out of gas since the tournament began.

    The three pools I entered are already settled, so I have no rooting interest in any of the remaining teams; therefore I can't pick against myself. And I have no real feel for tonight's games.

Be that as it may, I'll try to salvage some credibility by going with Butler and Kentucky to make Monday's championship game. The smart money will take VCU and UConn.

    

    

    

Sunday, March 27, 2011

ANDERSON RETURNS TO ARKANSAS

MIKE ANDERSON'S MISSOURI LEGACY    

    After five seasons at the University of Missouri, head basketball coach Mike Anderson on Wednesday submitted his resignation to take over at Arkansas, where he served 17 years as a Nolan Richardson assistant.

    Anderson's success as head man at UAB and Missouri led to overtures from Georgia and Oregon after his third and fourth seasons at MU. He eschewed MU's reported $2 million yearly salary and contract extension to return to Arkansas for a 7-year deal worth about $2.2 million a year.

     Missouri Athletic Director Mike Alden immediately began to search for a "name" replacement; and today the name mentioned most often is Matt Painter who in five years at his alma mater, Purdue, took the Boilermakers to two Sweet 16's while racking up 129 victories. With Cuonzo Martin, another Purdue grad, leaving Missouri State for Tennessee, the Painter possibility seems suspect, as Martin would have been a likely candidate at Purdue if Painter is seriously considering the Missouri job.

    Anderson's departure contradicted his vow just weeks ago to stay at Missouri for the long haul. The reaction of fans and media has been vitriolic, reflecting a sense of betrayal and manipulation from a coach whose Tiger teams averaged only a fifth place Big XII finish during his tenure at Mizzou.

    Despite the messy exit, Anderson revitalized a program left in shambles at the end of Quin Snyder's 6-year stint. Hired in March, 2006, Anderson inherited a team of prima donna troublemakers and brought discipline and an up-tempo style that restored a measure of respectability for Missouri basketball. It took most of his first two years to weed out the malcontents from the Snyder era and to find players willing to sacrifice personal agendas that meshed with his philosophy of "40 minutes of hell." MU went 34-28 (13-19 Big XII) and failed to make post-season play those first two years.

    In the 2008-09 season, with a grab bag of Snyder's recruits mixed with a few of his own signees, Anderson's Tigers finished 31-7 (setting a school record for victories), went 12-4 in conference, won the Big XII tournament, earned a #3 seed in the NCAA tournament, fired up long-suffering Mizzou fans and captured the imagination of the college hoops world before losing to Connecticut in the West Regional Finals.

    Last year, Missouri finished 23-11 (10-6 Big XII), lost its first round Big XII tournament game but managed a return to the Big Dance as a 10th seed, beating Clemson in the first round before bowing out to West Virginia. The Tigers did beat Illinois after 10 consecutive losses.

    This year Mizzou was ranked as high as 8th in early polls but fell out of the Top 25 after its late season slump. The Tigers managed only one conference road win, finished 23-11 again (but only 8-8 in conference play), again lost a first round game in the conference tournament, slipped into the NCAA field as an 11 seed but lost to Cincinnati in the first round.

    Anderson's critics point to a number of factors that contributed to Missouri's mild regression over the past two years: failure to recruit the best high school prospects from inside the state's borders (see Alec Burks out of Grandview who went to Colorado); failure to bolster a thin and undersized corps of big men; inability to field teams capable of more than a few upsets against the Big XII's traditional powers. The recruiting problems are inherent to a program not perceived as "elite" in a national sense.

Nevertheless when mid-major teams such as Butler and Gonzaga consistently find ways to compete against top-tier programs, Mizzou's frustrated fans can't fathom why the state's flagship basketball program has never made it to the Final Four, let alone won a national title.    

    As is the wont of all coaches, Mike Anderson has moved on. He teased the Tiger faithful with a meteoric flash in his third year but couldn't duplicate that success the past two seasons. Although his time here didn't meet with total success, Anderson did put MU basketball back on solid footing. No Missouri team won more games in a three-year span than his last three. His overall record in five years was 111-47, including a Big XII tournament trophy and a 5-3 record in three consecutive NCAA tournaments.

    Alden's next hire will inherit a veteran team of Anderson's recruits, will benefit from first-class facilities and will be paid big bucks to take Missouri basketball to a higher level of competiveness.    

Saturday, March 26, 2011

NCAA TOURNAMENT PREDICTIONS

MY PUBLISHED PICKS

    Before each day's NCAA tournament play, I proffered my choices of expected winners. Of course none of my "money brackets" matched those exact predictions. Technically that would be impossible because I missed calling the winner in eight first round games. Except for Round One, my predictions essentially are "rebracket" choices. For simplicity's sake, we'll ignore that fallacious detail.

    Below is a summary of my round-by-round prophecies.

ROUND ONE (25-7)

    Thursday (losing picks in red)

        West Virginia beat Clemson

        Butler beat Old Dominion

        Morehead State beat Louisville

        Temple beat Penn State

        Kentucky beat Princeton

        Pitt beat UNC-Asheville

        Richmond beat Vanderbilt

        San Diego State beat Northern Colorado

        Florida beat UC-Santa Barbara

        BYU beat Wofford

        UConn beat Bucknell

        Wisconsin beat Belmont

        UCLA beat Michigan State

        Gonzaga beat St. Johns

        Cincinnati beat Missouri

        Kansas State beat Utah State

    Friday

        Texas beat Oakland

        Michigan beat Tennessee

        Notre Dame beat Akron

        George Mason beat Villanova

        Arizona beat Memphis

        Duke beat Hampton

        Florida State beat Texas A&M

        Ohio State beat UT-San Antonio

        Kansa beat Boston U

        North Carolina beat Long Island

        Purdue beat St. Peter's

        Marquette beat Xavier

        Illinois beat UNLV

        Washington beat Georgia

        VCU beat Georgetown

        Syracuse beat Indiana State

    My Round One record was reasonably accurate. Surely no one except Morehead State fans picked them to beat Louisville. I took Missouri based on my heart, not my head. The mess around Bruce Pearl probably affected the Tennessee-Michigan outcome. I thought 'Nova would break out of its late-season slump. Wrong. I vastly underestimated FSU's defense, which blunted the Aggies' offense. I had Illinois losing because they lost to Missouri; and I thought Georgetown would rally for a win with Chris Wright's return. Wrong again.

ROUND TWO (10-6)

    SATURDAY

        Kentucky beat West Virginia

        Florida beat UCLA

        Richmond beat Morehead State

        San Diego State beat Temple

        Butler beat Pitt

        BYU beat Gonzaga

        Wisconsin beat Kansas State

        UConn beat Cincinnati

`    SUNDAY

        North Carolina beat Washington

        Duke beat Michigan

        Ohio State beat George Mason

        Arizona beat Texas

        VCU beat Purdue

        Marquette beat Syracuse

        Kansas beat Illinois

        Florida State beat Notre Dame

    I should have known Pitt would fall out early. They always do. Even with the loss of Davies, BYU was stronger than I expected. K-State gave one away to the Badgers. I kept expecting UConn to run out of gas. Marquette's win wasn't really a surprise. Notre Dame's loss killed me in my "money brackets."

ROUND THREE (5-3)

    THURSDAY

        UConn beat San Diego State

        Florida beat BYU

        Arizona beat Duke

        Butler beat Wisconsin

    FRIDAY    

        North Carolina beat Marquette

        Kansas beat Richmond

        Kentucky beat Ohio State

        VCU beat Florida State

    Thursday I picked every team that would hurt my brackets. Even Florida can't help me now.

Friday's early games were easy picks. Of course I had the Buckeyes going deep in four of my five pools; and I finally got on FSU's bandwagon just as the wheels fell off.

    After three rounds and 56 games, I stand at 40-16. Next up: playing the odds. That should be interesting. For those willing to put money on college basketball, a word of advice: I am the world's worst gambler.

NCAA REGIONAL FINALS

MY PICKS

    SATURDAY

    Florida (2) vs.
Butler (8):
The Gators have eliminated the Bulldogs in two previous NCAA             matchups (a 69-68 overtime win in the 2000 first round and in the 2007 regional             semifinals). Butler is trying to make a second straight Final Four appearance, but its

        glass slipper breaks tonight against a bigger and more athletic Florida five.

    UConn (3) vs. Arizona (5): Two great talents meet
in a clash between teams that missed the             Big Dance last year. Kemba Walker, for my money the national player of the year, has             been unstoppable in the Huskies' remarkable late-season run. Derrick Williams             dominated the second half of the Wildcats' demolition of Duke in Thursday's regional             semis. Lamont "MoMo" Jones will try to contain Walker. The two have been friends             since their junior high school days in New York. UConn waltzed through the first two             rounds before putting San Diego State away late in the semis. Arizona is lucky to be             alive after edging Memphis in the first round and miraculously beating Texas to reach             the Sweet 16. But the Wildcats seem to be peaking, while the Huskies have to be             running low on energy. Arizona ekes out a victory to eliminate the Big East's last hope.

    SUNDAY

    Kansas (1) vs. Virginia Commonwealth (11): Could the Jayhawks have had an easier path             in the tournament? Is there any question the Rams deserved an invitation? No and no.         KU won its first three tournament games by an average of 21 points. After winning its             "play-in" game, VCU dominated Georgetown and Purdue before ousting Florida State in         overtime on a buzzer beater. VCU is the kind of team that has given Kansas fits in recent         NCAA play; but the Jayhawks, the last #1 seed alive, are playing good basketball and will         end VCU's Cinderella dream. The winner will meet the Florida-Butler winner.        

    North Carolina (2) vs. Kentucky (4): Two of the most storied programs in college basketball play         Sunday with the victor advancing to the Final Four. Kentucky, with the most wins in the         history of college hoops, is in its 51st national tournament, also a record. The Wildcats             have seven national championships, second only to UCLA. They are 103-46 all-time in             national tournaments and have been to the Final Four 13 times. North Carolina, 102-            39 all-time in NCAA tournament play, has five national titles and 18 Final Four                 appearances in 41 trips to the tournament. UNC won the title in 2009 but missed last             year's tournament. Kentucky, which last won the championship in 1998, has been in 18         of the last 19 tournaments, missing out in 2009. Carolina, playing its best ball late in the         year, slipped past Washington in the second round. Kentucky, the SEC tournament             champion, barely got by Princeton in the first round; beat West Virginia 71-63 to             advance; and eliminated top-seed Ohio State, 62-60, on Brandon Knight's jumper with             5.4 seconds to play. North Carolina beat Kentucky, 75-73, in Chapel Hill in December,             but both teams have improved over the course of the season. In what shapes up as a             classic game, John Calipari's Wildcats nip Roy Williams' 'Heels and advance to face             either UConn or Arizona.

        

Friday, March 25, 2011

NCAA FRIDAY-ROUND OF 16

MY PICKS

North Carolina (2) vs. Marquette (11): Wouldn't it be great to see a tournament without the 'Heels or     Blue Devils? Won't happen. UNC knocks out Cinderella.

Kansas (1) vs. Richmond (12): Or without Kansas? The only chance I have in one pool is for KU to lose.

    Won't happen. Spiders fall.

Ohio State (1) vs. Kentucky (4): I didn't have the Wildcats going any further. They do match up and     might pull a stunner; but I'll stick with the Buckeyes.

Florida State (10) vs. VCU (11): OK, who had this matchup on a sheet? The Seminoles' defense will key     the FSU win.

Thursday, March 24, 2011

NCAA THURSDAY GAMES-ROUND OF 16

MY PICKS

If the higher seeds win, my money pools are enhanced. Therefore, I will pick against all of them.

San Diego State (2) vs. Connecticut (3): I really need the Aztecs, so I'm sure UConn keeps rolling.

Florida (2) vs. BYU (3): Again, my brackets need help with the Gators; ergo Jimmer takes the Cougars to     victory.

Duke (1) vs. Arizona (5): Can't see the Blue Devils winning back-to-back. The Wildcats trip them up.

Wisconsin (4) vs. Butler (8): In keeping with today's theme, I'm picking the fourth team I don't need in     my pools. Butler makes another run.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

NCAA SUNDAY-ROUND TWO

MY PICKS

North Carolina (2) vs. Washington (7): The Huskies will make a game of this; but the 'Heels prevail.

Duke (1) vs. Michigan (8): Blue Devils end Wolverines late-season charge.

Ohio State (1) vs. George Mason (8): The Buckeyes take care of business after a brief scare.

Texas (4) vs. Arizona (5): I need Texas in my pools; ergo Arizona will win.

Purdue (3) vs. VCU (11): The Commodores shock the Boilermakers.

Syracuse (3) vs. Marquette (11): The Golden Eagles join seven other Big East "beasts" out of the action.

Kansas (1) vs. Illinois (9): The Jayhawks eliminate Self's former team.

Notre Dame (2) vs. Florida State (10): The Irish are headed to the SW Regional finals against KU.

NCAA’S SATURDAY RESULTS

MY PICKS

    Had I gone with the "chalk" and with the majority of my pool picks, I'd have gone 7-1. Instead, based on the previous 32 games, I went against my pool picks, and was .500 in yesterday's post. Simply put, I'm the world's worst handicapper. Below are Saturday's winners in bold type, with my losing picks in red.

Kentucky (71) vs. West Virginia (63): Wildcats pulled away in the second half.

Florida (73) vs. UCLA (65): Erving Walker willed the Gators to a win that came down to the wire.

Richmond (65) vs. Morehead State (48): The Spiders advance to the round of 16.

San Diego State (71) vs. Temple (64): I predicted a nail-biter. It took two OT's for the Aztecs to win.

Pitt (70) vs. Butler (71): Butler advanced thanks to the weirdest finish imaginable. Both teams shot free     throws in the final 0.8 seconds.

BYU (89 vs. Gonzaga (67): It looks like Jimmer's Cougars might be real.

Wisconsin (70) vs. Kansas State (65): Jacob Pullen ran out of gas down the stretch.

UConn (69) vs. Cincinnati (58): The Huskies continued their amazing run.

Saturday, March 19, 2011

NCAA TOURNAMENT-ROUND TWO

MY SUNDAY PICKS TO REACH THE SWEET 16

North Carolina (2) vs. Washington (7): Take the Tarheels who must handle Isaiah Thomas, jr.

Duke (1) vs. Michigan (8): The Blue Devils win.

Ohio State (1) vs. George Mason (8): The Buckeyes narrowly avoid an upset.

Texas (4) vs. Arizona (5): A very tough choice, but I need Texas in my pools. Ergo Arizona will win.

Purdue (3) vs. VCU (11): Because I have the Boilermakers across the board, go with the Commodores.

Syracuse (3) vs. Marquette (11): The Orange avenges a regular season road loss in a close call.

Kansas (1) vs. Illinois (9): The Jayhawks roll into next week.

Notre Dame (2) vs. Florida State (10): This could be an upset, but I'll stick with the Irish.


 

NCAA TOURNAMENT-FRIDAY RESULTS

MY PICKS (11-5)

    Had I taken my posted picks in any of my several pools, I would be leading at least one of them. (I went 14-2 in Thursday's published predictions.)

    Tennessee's indifferent showing might have been expected, considering the Bruce Pearl situation. Illinois' strong game surprised me. Chris Wright struggled in his return to the Georgetown lineup, and VCU played great. I actually had the Commodores in two brackets, so it wasn't really an upset. George Mason's win wasn't unexpected, but I was disappointed in Texas A&M's effort.

    My incorrect picks are in red type:

Texas (4) vs. Oakland (13):
The Longhorns can't like this opener, but they prevail.

Michigan (8) vs. Tennessee (9): This is a tossup, but I think the Vols take it.

Notre Dame (2) vs. Akron (15): The Irish advance easily.

George Mason (8) vs. Villanova (9): Of my five money brackets, I have Nova winning 3 times. Pick one.

Arizona (5) vs. Memphis (12):
Arizona should win, but this is "madness".

Duke (1) vs. Hampton (16): Blue Devils march on.

Texas A&M (7) vs. Florida State (10): A tough matchup for the Aggies, they sneak by the 'Noles.

Ohio State (1) vs. UT-San Antonio (16): A warmup for the Buckeyes' run to the Final Four.

Kansas (1) vs. Boston U (16): Jayhawks pound the Terriers.

North Carolina (2) vs. Long Island (15): The Tarheels get back on track after the ACC tournament.

Purdue (3) vs. St. Peter's (14): Despite a disciplinary problem, the Boilermakers advance with ease.

Xavier (6) vs. Marquette (11): Look for another upset. Marquette advances.

UNLV (8) vs. Illinois (9): The Illini loss to Missouri doesn't bode well. Take the Running Rebels.

Washington (7) vs. Georgia (10): Another tough call, especially since I've seen little of either; but the     Huskies are on a late season run that should continue.

Georgetown (6) vs. Virginia Commonwealth (11): If Chris Wright can play effectively, the Hoyas will     advance.

Syracuse (3) vs. Indiana State (14): The Sycamores are going to give the Orange a scare before fading     late.

NCAA - ROUND TWO

MY PICKS

Kentucky (4) vs. West Virginia (5): The Wildcats shake off a near loss to edge the Mountaineers.

Florida (2) vs. UCLA (7): For the sake of my pool brackets I have to favor the Gators.

Richmond (12) vs. Morehead State (15): I have the Spiders moving into the Sweet 16.

San Diego State (2) vs. Temple (7): The Aztecs advance in a nail-biter.

Pitt (1) vs. Butler (8): The Panthers just avoid an upset.

BYU (3) vs. Gonzaga (11): With BYU advancing in four cash pools, the 'Zags upset Jimmer and crew.

Wisconsin (4) vs. Kansas State (5): Jacob Pullen gets hot to lead the Wildcats to the next round.

UConn (3) vs. Cincinnati (6): The Bearcats end the Huskies' tournament hopes.

Friday, March 18, 2011

NCAA HOOPS

MIZZOU EXITS WITH A WHIMPER

    The Missouri Tigers bowed out of the 2011 NCAA tournament with barely a whimper, losing 63-78 to the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first round.

    MU made only four free throws in the final 7:25 of the first half, to trail by 11 (28-39). After Ricardo Ratliffe swished a 3-pointer to cut the lead to two, the Tigers went 0-9 from the field the rest of the half. They missed five more field goal attempts before Marcus Denmon finally ended the drought with a 3-pointer at the 16:40 mark. For the game Missouri shot only 38% from the field.

    Mizzou finished the 2010-11 season at 23-11 after spending most of the season in the Top 25.

The Tigers seemed to lose confidence as the season drew to its conclusion, losing their last three regular season games before picking up a first round win in the Big XII tournament.

    Only Marcus Denmon, a 1st-team all-conference pick, and Laurence Bowers played with any consistency. Kim English never found his stride this year; and Big XII Newcomer of the Year Ricardo Ratliffe faded down the stretch. Michael Dixon lost his starting role as point guard midway through the season but won it back to inject a little energy into the lineup. Freshman point guard Phil Pressey showed flashes of promise but predictable freshman mistakes cost him minutes at the end of the year. Justin Safford's senior year was a bust, except for his late-game heroics in a win over Illinois in December.

    This Missouri team lacked the defensive intensity of Coach Mike Anderson's previous Tigers. His "fastest 40 minutes" approach to the game worked occasionally; but better teams took advantage of the gambling style to break down the Tiger defense. Lacking size and depth in the front court, Mizzou struggled on the boards and too often encountered early foul trouble battling in the paint. It is apparent that Anderson needs to bring in some quality big men if MU is to be competitive next year.

NCAA TOURNAMENT-FIRST ROUND

MOREHEAD STATE UPSETS LOUISVILLE

    It didn't take long for the "madness" to set in on the NCAA tournament when Morehead State eliminated Louisville in Thursday's first round. My phone started ringing off the hook with buddies' plaintive responses to the upset: "I'm done." Below are my predictions for the first day (published 3/17), with correct picks in bold type and losers in red. Amazingly, I did not have this exact list on any one of my five "money" brackets. What was I thinking? Thursday's results: 14-2.

West Virginia (5) vs.
Clemson (12): The Tigers won Tuesday night and may have an early edge; but the     Mountaineers will prevail.

Butler (8) vs. Old Dominion (9): My rule of thumb: if a team lost to Missouri, they will not advance. Butler moves on with a narrow win.

Louisville (4) vs. Morehead State (13): Louisville wins easily. I expect the Cardinals to make a deep run.

Temple (7) vs. Penn State (10):
I didn't have Penn State in my "mock" bracket, so give this to the Owls.

Kentucky (4) vs. Princeton (13): Wildcats win easily and advance.

Pitt (1) vs. UNC-Ashville (16): The Panthers will win an easy one.

Vanderbilt (5) vs. Richmond (12): My rule of thumb rules again. The Spiders notch the first 5-12 upset.

San Diego State (2) vs. Northern Colorado (15): We'll see how good the Aztecs are in a tighter-than-    expected win.

Florida (2) vs. UC-Santa Barbara (15): The Gators take a first step on a deep run.

BYU (3) vs. Wofford (14): Jimmer and company easily handle the Terriers.

UConn (3) vs. Bucknell (14): Kemba and crew advance easily.

Wisconsin (4) vs. Belmont (13):
The Badgers take out the Bruins in a close game.

UCLA (7) vs. Michigan State (10): A tough call, but I'll take Howland's Bruins over Izzo's Spartans in OT.

St. John's (6) vs. Gonzaga (11): Despite the Red Storm's surprising run in the Big East, the 'Zags advance     with a narrow victory.

Cincinnati (6) vs. Missouri (11): Despite a late-season slide, the Tigers' recent tournament history gives     them an edge over the Bearcats. MU takes an ugly victory in a mild upset.

Kansas State (5) vs. Utah State (12): Wildcats are overseeded and Utah State is underseeded, but KSU     advances after a scare.

    The Louisville loss had to hurt most everyone's pool picks. I picked Mizzou with my heart and not with my head. That was bound to be a mistake, given the Tigers' poor play down the stretch.

        

FRIDAY PICKS

Texas (4) vs. Oakland (13): The Longhorns can't like this opener, but they prevail.

Michigan (8) vs. Tennessee (9): This is a tossup, but I think the Vols take it.

Notre Dame (2) vs. Akron (15): The Irish advance easily.

George Mason (8) vs. Villanova (9): Of my five money brackets, I have Nova winning 3 times by a nose.

Arizona (5) vs. Memphis (12): Arizona should win, but this is "madness".

Duke (1) vs. Hampton (16): Blue Devils start a long march.

Texas A&M (7) vs. Florida State (10): A tough matchup for the Aggies, they sneak by the 'Noles.

Ohio State (1) vs. UT-San Antonio (16): A warmup for the Buckeyes' run to the Final Four.

Kansas (1) vs. Boston U (16): Jayhawks pound the Terriers.

North Carolina (2) vs. Long Island (15): The Tarheels get back on track after the ACC tournament.

Purdue (3) vs. St. Peter's (14): Despite a disciplinary problem, the Boilermakers advance with ease.

Xavier (6) vs. Marquette (11): Look for another upset. Marquette advances.

UNLV (8) vs. Illinois (9): The Illini loss to Missouri doesn't bode well. Take the Running Rebels.

Washington (7) vs. Georgia (10): Another tough call, especially since I've seen little of either; but the     Huskies are on a late season run that should continue.

Georgetown (6) vs. Virginia Commonwealth (11): If Chris Wright can play effectively in his return to the     lineup, the Hoyas will advance.

Syracuse (3) vs. Indiana State (14): The Sycamores are going to give the Orange a scare before fading     late.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

NCAA-THURSDAY GAMES

MY PICKS


 

West Virginia (5) vs. Clemson (12): The Tigers won Tuesday night and may have an early edge; but the     Mountaineers will prevail.

Butler (8) vs. Old Dominion (9): My rule of thumb: if a team lost to Missouri, they will not advance.     Butler moves on with a narrow win.

Louisville (4) vs. Morehead State (13): Louisville wins easily. I expect the Cardinals to make a deep run.

Temple (7) vs. Penn State (10): I didn't have Penn State in my "mock" bracket, so give this to the Owls.

Kentucky (4) vs. Princeton (13): Wildcats win easily and advance.

Pitt (1) vs. UNC-Ashville (16): The Panthers will win an easy one.

Vanderbilt (5) vs. Richmond (12): My rule of thumb rules again. The Spiders notch the first 5-12 upset.

San Diego State (2) vs. Northern Colorado (15): We'll see how good the Aztecs are in a tighter-than-    expected win.

Florida (2) vs. UC-Santa Barbara (15): The Gators take a first step on a deep run.

BYU (3) vs. Wofford (14): Jimmer and company easily handle the Terriers.

UConn (3) vs. Bucknell (14): Kemba and crew advance easily.

Wisconsin (4) vs. Belmont (13): The Badgers take out the Bruins in a close game.

UCLA (7) vs. Michigan State (10): A tough call, but I'll take Howland's Bruins over Izzo's Spartans in OT.

St. John's (6) vs. Gonzaga (11): Despite the Red Storm's surprising run in the Big East, the 'Zags advance     with a narrow victory.

Cincinnati (6) vs. Missouri (11): Despite a late-season slide, the Tigers' recent tournament history gives     them an edge over the Bearcats. MU takes an ugly victory in a mild upset.

Kansas State (5) vs. Utah State (12): Wildcats are overseeded and Utah State is underseeded, but KSU     advances after a scare.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

STEELE versus LUNARDI

BRACKETOLOGY COMPARISON

    Three weeks ago when I decided to try my hand at "bracketology", it was primarily a reaction to media "experts" expounding on which college basketball teams deserved invitations to the NCAA basketball tournament.

    With winter's grip still on the Midwest, golf was not an option; and with no work, I had plenty of time to research the relative merits of the teams with any chance of making the field of 68. To my way of thinking, anyone with too much time on their hands could probably come up with a "mock" bracket that would compare favorably with those of the talking heads and the tournament selection committee.

    First, I compiled a list of potential tournament teams. Then, using national rankings, public rating percentage index and available strengths of schedule, I began sorting candidates according to their "power rating", the sum of RPI and SOS. Of course the ratings changed almost daily; but as the regular season wound down, the list of candidates for at-large bids began to take shape.

    Two weeks before Selection Sunday, I constructed my first mock bracket. I remodeled the bracket over the next two weeks, ultimately building the final version published here last Sunday. As previously posted, my final bracket predictions compared fairly well with the official NCAA bracket: I correctly picked 65 of the 68 teams invited to the tournament; 46 of which were on or within one line of the committee's seeds; 19 were placed into the same regions as the committee's; disregarding regional placement, seven pairings in the Thursday's and Friday's games are identical to those of the committee. Based upon a scoring system (see "THE NCAA SELECTION PROCESS-BRACKETOLOGY SYLLABUS" posted February 27) that awards one point for each team invited, one point for each correct seed, two points for each correct region and three points for each correct pairing, I scored 170 points.

    By comparison, Joe Lunardi scored 180 points. He, too, correctly named 65 teams, 55 of which were seeded on or within one line of the official bracket seeds. He had 21 selections in the same regions in which his picks will play; and he had six pairings that mirror scheduled games.

    As to the three teams we did not have in our brackets, Lunardi and I both had Colorado and Virginia Tech in the final field. He picked St. Mary's to go, while I had Boston College "in". Neither of us had Virginia Commonwealth. He missed UAB and Georgia, which I had "in"; and he put Penn State and Southern Cal in the field, but I didn't.

    To further compare our pre-tournament choices, I've gone a couple of steps further: Lunardi had 31 teams on the same line as the official bracket, while I had 28. Deducting a point for the difference between actual and predicted seeds (Seeding Differential), Lunardi scored a 46; and I missed the lines by a total of 75. He missed only one team (Utah State) by as much as four lines; but I missed seven teams by four lines. (I attribute this statistic to the fact the weather turned nice enough to play golf last Friday, Saturday and Sunday; and I didn't spend much time refining the 8-12 lines.)

    To my credit, I correctly predicted all the #1 Seeds and had them going to the regions where the committee sent them. Lunardi had Notre Dame instead of Duke on the first line, with only Kansas and Ohio State in the correct regions. Ten of the first 16 seeds (1-4) in my projected bracket were identical to the official seeds. My Seeding Differential (SD) for that group totaled seven points. Lunardi hit eight of those teams on the nose, missing the others by just one line for an SD of eight points.

    Although my mock bracket lacks some of the refinement of Lunardi's, I am rather pleased with the results. Perhaps my time, effort and research will pay off with a winning entry among the five submittals in the three pools I entered this year.

    If not, and if I'm still breathing good air this time next year, I will have plenty of spreadsheets ready for "Build-a-Bracket 2012".

Monday, March 14, 2011

BIG XII GETS FIVE DATES TO THE DANCE

COLORADO SNUBBED

    Only five teams from the Big XII were invited Sunday to the NCAA tournament when the selection committee turned its nose up on Colorado (21-13, 8-8). The Buffaloes have accepted a #1 Seed in the NIT and will meet #8 Seed Texas Southern (19-12, 16-2 SWAC) in a first round game.

    Despite going 6-6 against NCAA invitees, including three wins against 5th-seeded Kansas State and a home win over then #1 Texas, CU's strong showing late in the season failed to impress the voters. Virginia Commonwealth and Southern Cal, as two of the last four teams invited, will "play in" for an 11th seed. VCU was 3-6 against tournament-bound teams, including an early home win against UCLA; and USC was 5-5 against teams in the field, including wins over Texas, Arizona and UCLA. Both had marginally worse power ratings (RPI + SOS) than Colorado. Clemson (21-11, 9-7 ACC) and UAB (22-8, 12-4 C-USA) were the last two "in" and play Tuesday for the 12th slot in the East Regional. The Tigers were 3-7 against NCAA tournament teams, with all seven losses coming against the cream of the ACC. The Blazers, with a better power rating than the Buffs, lost in the finals of the C-USA tournament and went just 1-4 against tournament seeds, the only win coming against VCU, another "play-in" selection.

    [In my "mock" bracket, I had CU as a 9th seed, based primarily the quality of their big wins. I did not have Penn State, VCU, or USC making the field of 68.]    

    As expected, Kansas received a #1 Seed and will head for coach Bill Self's Tulsa stomping grounds to face 16th seeded Boston University (21-13, 12-4 America East) in the Southwest Regional.

When the Jayhawks bring their "A" game, they are almost unbeatable, especially when Brady Morningstar and Tyrel Reed hit from 3-point land to open up inside lanes for the terrible twins, Marcus and Markieff Morris. Marcus was named conference player of the year. If the starters don't get the job done, Self can go deep into a talented bench without sacrificing much on either end of the court. One potential pitfall for the 'Hawks is the real possibility that the "terrible twins'" intimidating (read "dirty") style of play could lead to more unnecessary flagrant fouls.

    KU has been to the NCAA tournament 39 times and has three national titles. If Kansas plays with focus and energy, sometimes lacking against lesser opponents, they will be have a good chance to make a 14th Final Four appearance. Of course, the last two times the Jayhawks lost first round games (2005 and 2006) it was to the "killer bees", the Bucknell Bison and Bradley Braves. Is it a coincidence the committee matched them against Boston? Never in NCAA tournament history has a #1 lost to a #16. It could be worse: These aren't Bruins or Badgers,Bears or Bearcats, Buffaloes or Bison. These are the Boston Terriers.

    Texas (27-7, 13-3) is on the four line against Oakland (25-9, 17-1), which swept the Summit League season and tournament titles. The Longhorns spent a short week atop the AP poll before losing in Lincoln to Nebraska. Despite being ranked in the Top 10 for virtually the entire year, Texas' seed seems to reflect the committee's seeming disdain for the Big XII this year. (The Big Ten, 0-6 against the Big XII, sends seven teams.)

    Oakland is not your typical 13 seed. Six of the Golden Grizzlies' losses were to West Virginia, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State; and they beat Tennessee in Knoxville when the Volunteers were ranked 7th. They are not afraid to play with the big boys. Nationally, the Griz are 2nd in points per game (85.6), 14th in rebounds (39), 17th in assists (16.4) and 2nd in field goal percentage (49.4). This could be a "trap" game for Texas, which can't be caught looking ahead to a potential second round game against the Arizona-Memphis winner. [While some critics of the committee's seeming slight toward Texas, I had this exact matchup in my "mock" bracket.]

    Kansas State (22-10, 10-6) goes to Tucson as a higher than expected #5 Seed and will play 12th seeded Utah State (30-3, 15-1 WAC) in the first round. The Aggies, whose only losses are to BYU, Georgetown and Idaho, are ranked 19th in this week's final AP poll. The Wildcats, after starting the season high in the rankings before dropping out, went on a 6-game winning streak going into the Big XII tournament and now sits at #21. Could this be one of those 5 versus 12 "upsets" that seem to happen every year? [Again, I hit the nail on the head, pairing these teams in my pre-selection bracket.]

    Two other questionable committee seeds were those pitting Texas A&M (24-8, 10-6) at #7 in the Southwest Region against Florida State (21-10, 11-5 ACC). The Aggies went 5-5 against tourney teams, while the Seminoles were just 2-6 against the field; but one of those wins knocked Duke from the top of the AP poll. If A&M plays to its potential and knocks down its jump shots, they should handle FSU in what should be a highly competitive first round clash.

    Despite its woeful conference road record and some shoddy play late in the season, Missouri (23-10, 8-8) will be dancing for the third year in a row under Mike Anderson. The Tigers spent most of the year bouncing around the lower half of the Top 25 before falling off the charts last week. As a result the committee has put them in as a #10 seed to challenge lean, mean Cincinnati (25-8, 11-7 Big East).

MU will have to bottle some of the magic the 2009 team caught when it captured the imagination of the college basketball world if it expects to beat the Bearcats, toughened by the grueling Big East schedule. Cincinnati is making its first NCAA appearance since the departure of Bob Huggins after the 2005 season. [ I think the committee got these seeds right by flip-flopping my "mock" bracket seeds.]

NCAA BRACKET FINALIZED

BRACKETOLOGY REVIEW

    With the announcement Sunday of the 2011 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket, March Madness officially arrived with its customary hoopla, controversy and commentary.

    The expanded field of 68 teams did not, of course, include everyone's favorite team. Nor did it include a few schools considered more worthy than some of the invitees. USC, Penn State, UAB and VCU got dates to the Big Dance, while Colorado, Boston College and Virginia Tech were among those the selection committee spurned.

    For the past month (or more) the talking heads have spent countless hours speculating on which teams would be asked to the party. As a diehard fan of college basketball with too much time on my hands, I decided three weeks ago to predict the tournament field, ala the so-called "bracketology gurus" who fill the airways and cyberspace with "expert analysis". My first attempt to outsmart the experts and the committee was, by my self-defined standards, surprisingly successful. Despite missing a self-imposed deadline by one minute and 48 seconds [Editor's Note: Formatting problems in the draft of "SELECTION SUNDAY-DON'S BRACKET" (see preceding article) resulted in an unavoidable delay.], I have awarded myself a degree as Bachelor of Bracketological Sciences (B-BS) based upon a subjective scoring system posted February 27 titled "THE NCAA SELECTION PROCESS-BRACKETOLOGY SYLLABUS".     

    Not unlike the media analysts, I was surprised by the omission of Colorado, which had beaten Texas, Kansas State (three times) and Missouri on its way to a 5th place finish in the Big XII. Three weeks ago, the Buffaloes, led by dynamic sophomore guard Alec Burks, were not on my list of teams in the hunt for a tournament berth. In fact, based on their "power rating" (RPI + SOS), I didn't have them solidly in until late last week. Despite some good wins, the committee apparently was not enamored of rookie coach Tad Boyle's bison. Virginia Tech has been on or near the proverbial bubble over the course of my examination of potential qualifiers; and, for the third consecutive year, the Hokies' didn't get a corsage from the committee. Boston College fell into that same category: they just weren't pretty enough to be asked to the Dance. I had Colorado seeded 9th, BC at 11th and VaTech as a "last four in" playing in against Michigan for a 12th seed.

    For one reason or another my bracket did not include USC, VCU or Penn State, none of which were alluring enough for my money.

    Extrapolating: I correctly picked 65 of the 68 teams asked to the March Madness Ball. Of course 31 of those teams are automatic qualifiers; therefore it follows that I correctly picked 34 of the 37 at-large teams.

    Naming the four #1 seeds was not particularly difficult. Had Notre Dame won the Big East tournament, they might have earned a top spot, and the same could be said about North Carolina in the ACC. But the Irish lost in the semifinals, and Duke beat the Tarheels in Sunday's finals. Not only did I have Ohio State, Kansas, Pitt and Duke as #1 seeds, I assigned them to the same regional as did the committee; and I matched two of their opening opponents, depending on the outcome of first round play-in games.

    I correctly seeded three of the four #2 lines and picked three of the four teams playing in for 16th seeds. Twenty-six of my seeds matched those in the official bracket, and 20 more were within one slot

(+/-) of the final line. Seven of the 32 first round games in my mock bracket mirror committee pairings.

Only 19 of my picks ended up in my projected regional assignments; but my bracket avoided all but a few potential intraconference meetings in early rounds. With 11 teams from the Big East, it was more than a little difficult to juggle seeds and regional placement to avoid that dilemma. Further compounding the problem was the fact I had seven Big East teams seeded from 4-6, leaving little room for adjustments.

    With a B-BS in hand, my next step is an M-BS. To earn that degree I have to win a tournament pool or beat the committee's "chalk". There's no time to gloat over my undergraduate accomplish-ments. Brackets are due before Tuesday's play-in games begin.

    Now it's on to the real test: putting money where my mouth is.


 

Sunday, March 13, 2011

SELECTION SUNDAY

DON'S BRACKET

    Selection Sunday has arrived and, after many manipulations and machinations, I have finalized my final project for Bracketology 511.

    Below are my projections for the seeds and regional pairings for the 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament. Because the Big East has 11 bids, many of which are bunched around the four and five slots, it was practically impossible to avoid potential intraconference matchups in early rounds. Texas, Texas A&M and Kansas State caused the same problem.


 


 


 


 

SEED

EAST

SEED

SOUTHEAST

1

OHIO STATE

1

PITT

16

BUCKNELL/UTSA

16

UNC-ASHEVILLE

8

CLEMSON

8

MEMPHIS

9

MARQUETTE

9

ILLINOIS

12

VATECH/MICHIGAN

12

GONZAGA

5

KENTUCKY

5

LOUISVILLE

13

PRINCETON

13

INDIANA STATE

4

UCONN

4

TEXAS A&M

3

BYU

3

FLORIDA

14

BELMONT

14

ST. PETER'S

6

VILLANOVA

6

GEORGETOWN

11

BOSTON COLLEGE

11

TEMPLE

7

XAVIER

7

UNLV

10

FLORIDA STATE

10

CINCINNATI

15

BOSTON U

15

NORTHERN COLORADO

2

SAN DIEGO STATE

2

PURDUE

SEED

WEST

SEED

SOUTHWEST

1

DUKE

1

KANSAS

16

HAMPTON

16

ARK-LR/ALABAMA STATE

8

UCLA

8

VANDERBILT

9

COLORADO

9

WASHINGTON

12

UAB/GEORGIA

12

RICHMOND

5

ST. JOHNS

5

WEST VIRGINIA

13

OAKLAND

13

WOFFORD

4

TEXAS

4

SYR

3

WISCONSIN

3

ARIZONA

14

MOREHEAD STATE

14

AKRON

6

KANSAS STATE

6

TENNESSEE

11

UTAH STATE

11

OLD DOMINION

7

MICHIGAN STATE

7

MISSOURI

10

BUTLER

10

GEORGE MASON

15

LONG ISLAND

15

UC-SANTA BARBARA

2

NOTRE DAME

2

NORTH CAROLINA

It will be interesting to see if the tournament selection committee keeps some of my picks in the bracket. Either way, a case can and will be made for these selections; but it is time to announce my picks. [Hopefully, the pairings will format in the post.]

Saturday, March 12, 2011

BUILD-A-BRACKET

QUESTIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS

    The NCAA tournament selections will be announced in less than 36 hours, and I still have some serious sorting to come up with my final projected bracket. Below are questions and comments affecting the inclusion and/or seeding of a number of at-large teams.

  1. Clemson beat Boston College in round two. Does that take BC out?
  2. Xavier lost in round two a 10 to Dayton. The loss probably means a lower seed.
  3. If Notre Dame wins two more, they are a #1 seed.
  4. Michigan and Michigan State advance to semifinals. Neither will have to play in.
  5. Illinois (19-13) still has better RPI + SOS than Michigan or Michigan State.
  6. MSU spanked Purdue. There's a need to look at Purdue's resume.
  7. Colorado should probably be higher than Missouri.
  8. A&M is really pretty good. Let's see how the Aggies do against Texas.
  9. Memphis/UTEP loser needs a further look.
  10. Bethune-Cookman is out. Hampton plays Saturday @ 1 p.m. for MEAC title.
  11. Is USC a tournament contender now? Does UCLA drop? I think so.
  12. Does Georgia's loss to Alabama shoot down the Bulldogs' hopes?
  13. Does Alabama move onto a line?
  14. How does Tennessee rate?

USC has some bad losses (Rider, Bradley and TCU) and some good wins (Texas, Tennessee and Arizona). The Trojans' RPI is 67 and a SOS is 47, which is better than Colorado, Temple, Clemson, Florida State, UTEP, Virginia Tech and St. Mary's. One could make a strong case for their inclusion.

Boston College beat VaTech twice but got wiped out by Clemson in ACC tournament. Other good wins: Texas A&M; bad losses: Yale, Rhode Island. Eagles are still under 100 (81) in total RPI and SOS. I may have to move them to a play-in, especially if UTEP beats Memphis in the C-USA tournament finals.

Purdue lost to Iowa in season finale. Other bad losses: none; Good wins: Wisconsin and Ohio State back to back. I may have to move them to #3.

Georgia's loss is problematic. With an RPI of 40 and a SOS of 39, they are stronger than many at-large teams already considered locks in my bracket (Texas A&M, Washington, Cincinnati, Temple, Colorado, St. Mary's, and UTEP). Good wins: Colorado, Kentucky, Tennessee; Bad losses: none. I'm going against Lunardi here and keeping the Bulldogs "in".

Colorado State (19-11), which I have as a "last four out" team has an RPI + SOS total of 77, better than Xavier, BC, A&M, Memphis, Marquette, Washington, Cincinnati, George Mason, Va Tech and Temple. They have one bad loss to Air Force but no signature wins. If Memphis beats UTEP today, they could make a "play-in" game.

Tennessee finished at only 18-14 but played one of the toughest schedules in the country (SOS of 3) with good wins over Belmont (twice), Missouri State, VCU, Villanova, Pitt, Memphis and Vanderbilt (twice). They did lose to both Alabama (OT) and Georgia, two teams that are definitely on the bubble. Right now I have them as a #9, but may wait until Sunday afternoon to finalize their fate.

Alabama is currently "out" of my bracket. I just can't find enough in their resume to put them "in".

Memphis (24-9) has good RPI and SOS factors (23 + 50 = 73) but lacks any particularly good wins. They have two bad losses (SMU and Rice, both conference games on the road). Their overall Power Rating (RPI + SOS) is better than that of Missouri, Xavier, Georgia, BC, Texas A&M, Marquette, Washington, Cincinnati, George Mason, Florida State, Colorado, Virginia Tech St. Mary's and UTEP. Win or lose the C-USA tournament, I think they're invited to my tournament.

UTEP has the lowest power rating (177) of any at-large team in my bracket. I have them playing in as a 12 seed, but will bump them if they do not win the C-USA tourney. If they win the tourney, they will bump VaTech, with the second-lowest PR (RPI + SOS) among the at-large teams I have selected.

Tennessee's record is nothing to write home about, but they have several good wins and a strong PR. They are going to Don's Big Dance.

Friday, March 11, 2011

NCAA BRACKETOLOGY

A SKELETON BRACKET TAKES SHAPE

    As the tsunami that is "Selection Sunday" fast approaches, my skeleton bracket is beginning to flesh out; but conference tournament results already are necessitating emergency modifications.

    Alabama-Birmingham's early exit from the Conference USA tourney has forced me to rethink the Blazers' standing. As late as Wednesday, I had them solidly in as 10th seed; but somehow I had let Clemson slip by unnoticed. Neither team has any particularly strong wins; but the Tigers crept up the ACC standings to put themselves into position for an NCAA bid. A strong Mountain West team, Colorado State (19-12, 9-7) has fallen off the bracket with an early loss in the conference tournament. Today I drop UAB and insert Clemson. Michigan's late run in the Big Ten puts them into Colorado State's slot.

    I have tried to stay away from Joe Lunardi's picks in an effort arrive at an independently-constructed bracket. The bracketology guru has six ACC teams in: Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College and Virginia Tech. To my thinking, BC and VaTech have always been a bit "bubbly" because, until the Tarheels caught fire, the ACC was somewhat "down" this year. But both have some quality wins when compared to others on the cusp.     

    My "last four in" are UTEP, Georgia, Michigan State and St. Mary's. They are slotted into the two 12-seed play-in games. [Editor's Note: The Official NCAA Tournament Bracket still has two "play-in" games listed as "TBD" (To Be Determined.)] Colorado State, UAB, Marshall and Southern Miss are ranked 69-72 on my watch list. The Georgia-Alabama game has serious implications for two teams that have been floating on the bubble for the past two weeks.

    Ohio State is my top #1 seed, and Kansas has a lock on another top seed. Despite Pitt's loss yesterday, its body of work warrants a #1 seed. If North Carolina wins the ACC tournament, the Tarheels, based on their strong play down the stretch, will receive serious consideration for a #1 seed. Notre Dame may take that spot if they win the Big East tourney. The Irish are playing at an unbelievably high level and it's one of the best passing (and catching) teams in the nation.

    For the most part, automatic qualifiers from the "other" conferences have been placed in lower tier of seeds (13-16). The exceptions are Butler and Old Dominion. Today I have Butler, last year's national runnerup, at a nine in the West against 8th-seeded Utah State, a third team from the strong Mountain West in the Top 25. ODU (27-6, 14-4 and winners of the Colonial Conference is a 7th seed matched against a 10 in the Southeast Region. Today that team is Memphis, a Conference USA team that may have to beat UTEP to stay in contention for a bid. One of those teams will probably be relegated to the NIT.
    Not unlike that of the official selection committee, my "Sunday Bracket" must be refined over the next 2. The outcomes of key matchups in the major conferences could have moderate impact on a few teams still in the running for inclusion in the NCAA tournament. Some games in "mid-major" tourneys could have serious implications. By most accounts, the automatic bids still to be determined in the so-called "minor" leagues will have little or no effect on those teams still floating in the bubbles.

    Technical difficulties prevent inclusion of my projected pairings in this article, but they appear separately in another of today's posts, which appears immediately below this entry.

TODAY’S PROJECTED NCAA PAIRINGS

    STEELE'S BRACKET

    (Teams in BOLD TYPE have automatic bids)    

SEED

EAST

  

SEED

SOUTHEAST

1

NORTH CAROLINA

  

1

OHIO STATE

16

BUCKNELL/MCNEESE

  

16

UNC-ASHEVILLE

8

VILLANOVA

  

8

MISSOURI

9

TENNESSEE

  

9

WASHINGTON

12

UTEP/GEORGIA

  

12

GONZAGA

5

WEST VIRGINIA

  

5

ST. JOHN'S

13

PRINCETON OR HARVARD

  

13

WOFFORD

4

TEXAS

  

4

SYRACUSE

3

WISCONSIN

  

3

FLORIDA

14

BELMONT

  

14

MOREHEAD STATE

6

CINCINNATI

  

6

UCLA

11

BOSTON COLLEGE

  

11

MARQUETTE

7

VANDERBILT

  

7

OLD DOMINION

10

MEMPHIS

  

10

FLORIDA STATE

15

KENT STATE (MAC)

  

15

ST. PETER'S

2

SAN DIEGO STATE

  

2

NOTRE DAME

  

  

  

  

  

SEED

WEST

  

SEED

SOUTHWEST

1

PITT

  

1

KANSAS

16

UTAH VALLEY

  

16

ARK-LR/TEX SOUTHERN

8

UTAH STATE

  

8

TEMPLE

9

BUTLER

  

9

GEORGE MASON

12

MICHIGAN ST/ST. MARY'S

  

12

OAKLAND

5

GEORGETOWN

  

5

KENTUCKY

13

LONG ISLAND

  

13

MICHIGAN

4

KANSAS STATE

  

4

LOUISVILLE

3

ARIZONA

  

3

BYU

14

LONG BEACH STATE

  

14

NORTHERN COLORADO

6

TEXAS A&M

  

6

UCONN

11

ILLINOIS

  

11

VIRGINIA TECH

7

XAVIER

  

7

UNLV

10

COLORADO

  

10

CLEMSON

15

INDIANA STATE

  

15

HAMPTON

2

DUKE

  

2

PURDUE