BUILD-A-BRACKET

PRELIMINARY SEEDS & PAIRIINGS

If the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament were to start today, Duke, Pitt, Ohio State and Kansas would be my choices for #1 seeds.

Illinois would face Georgia in the East Region "play-in" game for the 12^th seed. Penn State would do the same against Butler in the West Region. All four, along with Boston College, UTEP, Marquette, UAB, UNLV, Florida State and Virginia Tech are on my "bubble". The other two play-in games involve single-team conferences vying for a 16^th seed.

As required in Bracketology 202 (see previous post), a preliminary pairings bracket appears below.

SEED	EAST	SEED	WEST
1	DUKE	1	PITT
16	BUCKNELL/MCNEESE ST	16	LONG ISLAND
8	MEMPHIS	8	TENNESSEE
9	KANSAS STATE	9	MICHIGAN STATE
4	VILLANOVA	4	WISCONSIN
13	BELMONT	13	ST. MARY'S
5	VANDERBILT	5	LOUISVILLE
12	ILLINOIS*/GEORGIA*	12	PENN STATE*/BUTLER*
2	SAN DIEGO STATE	2	TEXAS
15	KENT STATE	15	LONG BEACH ST
7	OLD DOMINION	7	WEST VIRGINIA
10	BOSTON COLLEGE*	10	UTEP*
3	GEORGETOWN	3	ARIZONA
14	PRINCETON	14	UTAH VALLEY ST
6	XAVIER	6	TEXAS A&M
11	MURRAY STATE	11	UTAH STATE
	SOUTHEAST		SOUTHWEST
1	OHIO STATE	1	KANSAS
16	COASTAL CAROLINA	16	FAU/TEXAS SOUTHERN
8	WASHINGTON	8	UCLA
9	CINCINNATI	9	MARQUETTE*
4	FLORIDA	4	NORTH CAROLINA
13	UAB*	13	VERMONT
5	SYRACUSE	5	ST. JOHNS
12	FLORIDA STATE*	12	UNLV*
2	BYU	2	PURDUE
15	FAIRFIELD	15	HAMPTON
7	TEMPLE	7	GEORGE MASON
10	VIRGINIA TECH*	10	MISSOURI STATE
3	NOTRE DAME	3	UCONN
14	OAKLAND	14	MONTANA
6	KENTUCKY	6	MISSOURI
11	GONZAGA	11	CHARLESTON

[Teams from conferences in which only the tournament winner is expected to make the NCAA Tournament field are listed in BOLD type. Teams considered to be on the "bubble" at this time are listed in GREEN type with an asterisk (in case Green type doesn't post).]

 

Despite the preponderance of Big East teams and based upon the premise that higher (i.e. better) seeds will advance, my preliminary bracket avoids rematches of regular season games until later rounds. One possible exception could occur should Louisville (5) win a Round 3 game against Wisconsin (4) to advance to the Sweet 16 against Pitt.

 

Of course, the next two weeks will necessitate some adjustments to this preliminary bracket. Some of my bubble teams will fall out; and a few of the "minor" conferences will crown a champion not seeded here. Not unlike the challenge facing the Selection Committee, this initial bracket is a work in progress.

THE NCAA SELECTION PROCESS

BRACKETOLOGY SYLLABUS

Those seeking a degree in College Basketball must successfully pass five required Bracketology courses.

 

Bracketology 101: This course begins with a study of the strength and weakness of the college teams and conferences and ends with the compilation of a field of at least 68 teams eligible for an invitation to the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Assignment due two weeks before Selection Sunday.

 

Bracketology 202 (Prerequisite: Bracketology 101): Students will select, seed and place their nominees into a preliminary NCAA Tournament bracket, one adhering to the basic principle of creating balanced regional pairings that avoid rematches of regular season games and early round pairings of teams from the same conference. Due 10 days before Selection Sunday.

 

Bracketology 307 (Prerequisite: Bracketology 202): This class is devoted to refining the research and data from the prerequisite courses. It also deals with "Bubbles", taking into account late season results and further analyzing the relative strengths of marginal teams. A revised pairings bracket is due prior to the start of Championship Week.

 

Bracketology 407 (Prerequisite: Bracketology 307): Successful completion of this class entails submittal of students' final pairings brackets along with justification for inclusion and exclusion of Bubble teams. Final Pairings Bracket is due no more than one minute before public announcement of the Official NCAA Tournament Field.

 

Bracketology 509 (No prerequisites): Only requirement is to fill out two complete brackets, one based on student's final bracket and one based on the official NCAA Tournament Bracket. o

 

Grading:

    Bracketology 101 (Pass/Fail): A preliminary field must be submitted before the deadline.

    Bracketology 202 (Pass/Fail): The first pairings bracket must be submitted no later than two           Sundays before the official announcement of the field.

    Bracketology 307 (Pass/Fail): A revised pairings bracket is to be submitted prior to                Championship week.

    Bracketology 407 (Pass/Fail): A final pairings bracket that includes at least 60 of 68 official           invitees must be submitted by the deadline (see above). Additionally, a scoring system will           be applied to submissions, awarding points as follows: 1 point for each correct team; 2 points           for each correct regional placement; 1 points for each correctly seeded team (+1/- 1); 3          points for each correct matchup. One must score at least 150 points to become earn the           degree of Bachelor of Bracketology.

    Bracketology 509: Win your pool (points awarded according to individual pool rules) or beat the      chalk (by Selection Committee seeding and awarding 1 point for each correctly advanced           team     in Round 2, 2 points for Round 3; 4 points for each team picked in the Sweet 16; 8 points      for each team to make the Elite 8; 16 points for each correctly placed Final Four team; 32           points for each correct semifinal choice and 64 points for picking the NCAA Champion] to earn      a degree as Master of Bracketological Science (MBS). To earn a PhD in Bracketological           Science, one's completed Final Bracket (from Bracketology 407) must score higher than that           of the Committee's.

    

BRACKETOLOGY-PART TWO

PICKING THE NCAA FIELD-PART TWO

 

With Selection Sunday still two weeks away, trying to outsmart the committee is like driving blindfolded on a country road. With that caveat in mind and realizing conference tournaments can (and probably will) upset the apple cart, here are my picks for this year's NCAA Tournament invitations.

 

POWER CONFERENCES
(Bubble teams listed in Blue)

 

ACC (5)

In: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Florida State

Comment: Virginia Tech's win over Duke moved them "in" but with work to do. BC and FSU are "in" for the time being.

 

BIG EAST (11)

In: Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, UConn, Louisville, Villanova, Syracuse, St. John's, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette

Comment: It's hard to leave any of these teams out, although Cincy and Marquette may have a little more to prove.

 

BIG TEN (6)

In: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, Penn State

Comment: Illinois and Penn State are definitely on the bubble. Michigan is moving up.

 

BIG XII (5)

In: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State

Comment: Some analysts have Colorado and Baylor as bubble teams. Missouri is sliding toward the bubble.

 

SEC (5)

In: Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia

Comment: Georgia still has something to prove. Alabama is on the outside looking in.

 

PAC-10 (3)

In: Arizona, UCLA, Washington

Comment: The Bruins' two wins over Arizona hurts the Wildcats' seed.

 

 

MID-MAJORS

 

ATLANTIC 10 (2)

In: Xavier, Temple

Out: Dayton, Richmond

Comment: If the Flyers or Spiders win the conference tournament, that team will bust a bubble.

 

COLONIAL (2)

In: Old Dominion, George Mason

Out: Virginia Commonwealth

Comment: ODU and George Mason should both be in, regardless of the tourney champ, which could be another bubble buster.

 

CONFERENCE USA (3)

In: Memphis, UTEP, UAB

Comment: UTEP and UAB will be two of the first four out.

 

HORIZON (2)

In: Butler, Cleveland State

Out: Valparaiso

Comment: It's quite possible only the conference tournament champion will receive an invite.

 

IVY LEAGUE (1)

In: Princeton

Out: Harvard

Comment: This entry could flip-flop depending on the outcome of Saturday's Ivy League showdown.

Harvard has put together a great season but lacks any significant wins.

 

MISSOURI VALLEY (1)

In: Missouri State

Out: Wichita State

Comment: Both teams deserve an invitation; but both could miss if neither wins the Valley tourney.

 

MOUNTAIN WEST (3)

In: San Diego State, Brigham Young, UNLV

Out: Colorado State

Comment: UNLV has flirted with the Top 25 all year, has strong RPI (26) and SOS (29) and should be in.

 

THE REST

With the exception of the West Coast Conference, the teams that are "In" are the current conference leaders. Almost without exception* the winners of the conference tournaments will be the only teams invited to the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

 

AMERICA EAST (1): Vermont

 

ATLANTIC SUN (1): Belmont

 

BIG SKY (1): Montana

 

BIG SOUTH (1): Coastal Carolina

 

BIG WEST (1): Long Beach State

 

GREAT WEST (1): Utah Valley State

 

MID-AMERICA ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (1): Kent State

 

MID-ATLANTIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (1): Fairfield

 

MID-EAST ATHLETIC CONFERENCE: (1): Hampton

 

NORTHEAST (1): Long Island

 

OHIO VALLEY (1): Murray State

 

PATRIOT (1): Bucknell

 

SOUTHERN (1): College of Charleston

 

SOUTHLAND (1): McNeese State

 

SUMMIT (1): Oakland

 

SUN BELT (1): Florida Atlantic

 

SWAC (1): Texas Southern

 

WAC (1): *Utah State could still make the Big Dance without winning the WAC Tournament,

 

WEST COAST (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MU V KSU RECAP

MISSOSURI (70) @ KANSAS STATE (80)

In typical road fashion, Missouri fell behind early, sleepwalking through the first four minutes of the Saturday morning tipoff at Kansas State, spotted the Wildcats the first 10 points and lost by that same margin, 70-80.

The win pulls K-State even with MU in Big XII standings, tied for fourth at 7-6; but, unless there is a change, the Tigers hold the tiebreaker with a higher RPI. Missouri finishes league play on the road against Nebraska and at home against Kansas; while the Wildcats go on the road to Texas before finishing at home against Iowa State. If form holds, Frank Martin's 'Cats will finish 9-7, meaning MU must win another game to receive a first round by in Kansas City.

Despite Mizzou's homecourt dominance this year and the Tigers' somewhat successful record against the Jayhawks in Columbia, a road victory in Lincoln would go far in clearing MU's path to postseason play.

Missouri did battle back from the early deficit, cutting the lead to three at the half and taking their first lead, 44-43, at 7:16 in the second half. But Curtis Kelly came up big with Jacob Pullen on the bench, and the 'Cats retook the lead and then went on a 9-0 run over the next six minutes to take the fight out of the visiting Tigers.

Missouri, saddled with foul trouble throughout the game, was pounded on the boards as Wildcat big men went over the Bengals' backs time and again for putbacks.

MISSOURI V. KANSAS STATE

With a win today at Kansas State's Bramalage Coliseum, the Missouri basketball team can wrap up a Big XII tournament bye, put a quality road win on its NCAA resume and give the team a little room to breathe.

With a loss, Mizzou will stay on the ventilator another two weeks, awaiting the prognosis from the NCAA Tournament selection committee, as fickle a group of diagnosticians as one could find.

The patient's history in the "Octagon of Doom" indicates more treatment. The Tigers are winless in Manhattan under Coach Mike Anderson; but they handled K-State easily in Columbia early in the season. Frank Martin's Wildcats were suffering a funk of their own then, fighting through an infection of defections and suspensions. Apparently the Purple Pride of the Plains has cured the blues and seems to be on the road to recovery. Nonetheless, a Wildcat win only pulls K-State even with the Tigers in Big XII play; but KSU will still trail in conference seeding if the RPI tiebreaker doesn't change.

A Mizzou loss will make Wednesday's game against Nebraska in Lincoln the most important game of the Tigers' season.

TIGERS IN THE STRETCH

TIGERS NOTCH BIG WIN

With a convincing 77-59 win over Baylor Wednesday night in Columbia, the Missouri Tigers assured themselves of at least an 8-8 Big XII Conference record and strengthened their position for an NCAA Tournament invitation.

Ricardo Ratliffe and Laurence Bowers more than held their own against the Bears' front court. Ratliffe carried the load in the first half with 10 rebounds and eight points. Bowers, saddled with two fouls in the first half, scored 18 in the second half, picked up nine boards and added six steals. Marcus Denmon chipped in 13 points and dogged Lacedarius Dunn on defense; and Kim English added 16, mostly from long range.

Next on the schedule is Saturday's tilt with Kansas State in Manhattan, where the Tigers have not won since 2004. Frank Martin's Wildcats have slowly fought back from suspensions and defections to move into contention for a fourth place bye in the conference tournament. A Mizzou win would probably squash that hope for K-State. Even if MU loses, the Tigers would still hold the edge in a tiebreaker against the Wildcats, based on the current RPI of the teams.

After Saturday the Tigers close the season on the road against K-State's latest victim, Nebraska, still harboring slim hopes for an spot in the Big Dance, and at home against the vaunted Kansas Jayhawks. K-State finishes on the road against conference leader Texas and home against Iowa State. Should Mizzou stumble and lose all its final three games and K-State win two of three, the Wildcats would earn the fourth bye in the conference tournament. A Missouri win Saturday would render moot any "worst case scenarios."

Speaking of RPI (Rating Percentage Index) and Strength of Schedules (SOS): who figures these numbers?

Kansas, according to cbssports.com
has the top RPI and is ranked 10^th by SOS. Missouri is at #30 in RPI and #68 in SOS. KU has wins over nine teams in the RPI top 68 and two losses. MU has four wins and five losses based on the same criteria. The losses to Texas A & M, Colorado and Oklahoma State obviously have cost the Tigers valuable points in the ratings system; but the disparity seems somewhat skewed considering the teams play the exact same conference schedule.

Be that as it may, Missouri has exceeded its preseason projection to finish eighth in the Big XII; and Coach Mike Anderson looks to lead Mizzou into another NCAA tournament with the Tigers again showing signs of improvement as the season moves toward March.

 

BIG XII COUNTDOWN

TIGER PROSPECTUS

As the buzzer sounds to start the fourth quarter of the Big XII Conference basketball season, the Missouri Tigers face a potentially season-killing schedule, starting with long, tall Baylor at home tonight.

Then come resurgent Kansas State on the road Saturday, upset-minded Nebraska in Lincoln next Wednesday and hated Kansas at home in the season finale.

If Mizzou doesn't play better than in its ragged win at Iowa State, the Tigers could lose out and finish below .500 in Big XII play. Barring a title run in the conference tournament, they would not receive an invitation to the NCAA dance. The Bears, Wildcats and Cornhuskers (all 6-6) are clustered just below MU in the Big XII race, and all still harbor hopes of making the big tournament. All are desperate, and all are capable of beating Missouri.

Baylor may have the toughest end-of-season schedule with a road trip to Oklahoma State sandwiched between home dates against Texas A & M and Texas.

Kansas State takes to the road against Nebraska tonight before meeting Mizzou Saturday. They close next week at Texas and at home against Iowa State.

Besides the K-State and Mizzou games, the 'Huskers travel to Iowa State and Colorado.

For Missouri to assure themselves of a first round bye in the conference tournament and an invitation to March Madness, they probably have to win two of the next four games. That would put them at 9-7 in the conference with at least a tie for fourth in league play. Beating Baylor tonight would give the Tigers the edge in the tiebreaker with the Bears (higher RPI) should the Bears go 3-1 the rest of the way. A win over either K-State or Nebraska breaks any tie with those teams.

The importance of tonight's game cannot be overstated. For Missouri, this is THE game of the year. A loss gives Baylor the tiebreaker over Missouri and puts the Tigers in "must win" situations in Manhattan and Lincoln. And the Tigers' road record speaks for itself.

 

MARCH MADNESS: FIRST LOOK

BRACKETOLOGY 2011 [These picks were made Wednesday, February, 16, 2011 and do not reflect games played that day.]

With more than three weeks left in the college basketball season, the talking heads are busy speculating which teams are in and which are out of the NCAA Tournament. Knowing a near-infinite number of scenarios yet are possible, let me add my two cents to this exercise in futility.

 

First, a disclaimer: conference tournaments will, as usual, upset everyone's projections.

With a number of analysts still riding Michigan State's preseason expectations and suggesting the Spartans still have a chance to make the Big Dance, let's start with the Big Ten. Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue are locks. Illinois (16-9, 6-6), with tough road games against Ohio State, Michigan State (14-11, 6-7) and Purdue, must go at least 3-3 to finish at .500 in the league. Any slips will give Tom Izzo's squad, with the chance to go 4-1in its final five games, an opening. Saturday's heads-up game will probably determine which team makes the tournament.

Projection: 4 teams

 

The Big East is arguably the strongest conference this year with eight teams seen as sure nominees to March Madness: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Villanova, St. John's, Connecticut and Syracuse. West Virginia and Cincinnati have high RPI's and schedule strengths but could miss out if conference tournaments skew the field. Look for the Bearcats to fall to the NIT.

Projection: 9 teams

 

The ACC is seen as down this year, with only Duke and North Carolina assured of invitations. Florida State and Virginia Tech are on the bubble but could make the dance with strong finishes.

Projection: 4 teams

 

 

Texas and Kansas may both be #1 seeds come "Selection Sunday". Barring a total collapse Texas A&M is in; but look for Missouri, Baylor and Kansas State to scrap for a date to the dance and to represent the Big XII. Oklahoma State has respectable RPI and SOS but isn't yet even on the bubble.

Projection: 6 teams

 

The Pac-10 is down this year; but Arizona, UCLA and Washington could make strong showings in the tournament. California has an outside chance, but if the Bears make it, they will probably knock out a deserving team from a "minor" conference.

Projection: 3 teams

 

The SEC East is loaded; and Florida, Vanderbilt are in, while Georgia and Kentucky still have a little work to do on their resumes. Alabama should make it, too, but either Mississippi or Tennessee will be bound for the NIT.

Projection: 6 teams

 

That takes care of the so-called "power conferences" which should land no fewer than 32 teams in the tournament.

 

Now for a look at the "mid-majors":

 

Xavier, Temple and Richmond should represent the Atlantic 10.

Projection: 3 teams (35)

 

Based on all criteria, the Colonial Conference should receive three bids: George Mason (19-5, 7-2),Old Dominion (21-6, 12-4) and Virginia Commonwealth (20-8, 12-4) all have solid credentials.

Projection: 3 teams (38)

 

Conference USA has four teams that should make the Dance: UTEP (19-5, 7-2) looks like a lock. Memphis (1-6, 7-3) will be in based upon their record, RPI, SOS and past performances. UAB (18-6, 8-3) and Southern Miss (18-6, 7-4) both deserve invitations, but one is likely to be overlooked.

Projection: 3 teams (41)

 

As usual the Missouri Valley, with three qualified teams (Missouri State, Wichita State and Northern Iowa) will get shorted, leaving one team to make a run in the NIT.

Projection: 2 teams (43)

 

While BYU and San Diego State battle for the Mountain West title and pending invitations to dance, Colorado State and UNLV will fight for a third berth.

Projection: 3 teams (46)

 

Princeton and Harvard are neck-and-neck in the Ivy League, but
only the winner will be invited.

Projection: 1 team (47)

 

Now let's look at the best of the rest:

 

Vermont (21-5, 12-1) is the cream of the crop in the America East.

Projection: 1 team (48)

 

Belmont leads the Atlantic Sun, but the winner of the conference tournament will likely be the sole representative come tourney time.

Projection: 1 team (49)

 

Look for Montana to come out of the Big Sky.

Projection: 1 team (50)

 

Coastal Carolina, if it wins the Big South tourney, could be a first round threat.

Projection: 1 team (51)

 

Long Beach State currently leads the Big West.

Projection: 1 team (52)

 

The Great West shows Utah Valley State at the top for now.

Projection: 1 team (53)

    :

Three teams from the Horizon League (Butler, Valparaiso and Cleveland State) are qualified but only two

will go if another team wins the league tourney.

Projection: 2 teams (54)

 

Fairfield (or the tourney winner) will be the MAAC rep.

Projection: 1 team (55)

 

Kent State tops the Mid-America list of candidates.

Projection: 1 team (56)

 

Hampton is currently atop the MEAC.

Projection: 1 team (57)

 

Long Island is tearing up the Northeast Conference.

Projection: 1 team (58)

 

Murray State and Morehead State are likely in a battle for the sole invitation from the Ohio Valley.

Projection: 1 team (59)

 

Look for Bucknell to come out of the Patriot League.

Projection: 1 team (60)

 

Charleston is leading the Southern Conference.

Projection: 1 team (61)

 

Look for the Southland's representative to be McNeese State.

Projection: 1 team (62)

 

The SWAC probably sends Texas Southern.

Projection: 1 team (63)

 

Oakland, out of the Summit League, beat Tennessee and nearly upset Michigan State and will be in, win or lose the league tournament. The Golden Grizzlies will be a tough seed in the first round.

Projection: 1 team (64)

 

Florida Atlantic currently leads the Sun Belt.

Projection: 1 team (65)

 

St. Mary's and Gonzaga are in a battle for the West Coast title and both should be invited.

Projection: 2 teams (67)

 

Look for Utah State to be the WAC invitee.

Projection: 1 team (68)

 

With a minimal amount of manipulation, those are my picks for invitations to the NCAA Tournament.

 

My list leaves New Mexico, Michigan State, California, Miami (Fla.), Dayton, Penn State, Minnesota and Duquesne on the outside looking in; but there is still room for some should the mid-level teams in the power conferences slide during the final weeks of the season. The Selection Committee is known to place added value to teams' records over the final 10 games, opening the door of opportunity for those on the "bubble" and slamming that same door on teams seemingly "in" at this stage of the season.

MIZZOU UPDATE

FEBRUARY COUNTDOWN

With "Selection Sunday" less than a month away, the Missouri Tigers, seemingly comfortable in the rankings (20), the RPI (26) and Strength of Schedule (53), could play their way onto the proverbial "bubble" if they should stumble at home against Texas Tech or Baylor and fail to win at least two of three road games.

As it stands, the Tigers (5-5) are alone in fifth place in the Big XII Conference race. To move to fourth and a bye in the first round of the conference tournament, MU must go at least 4-2 in its final six regular-season games.

For the sake of argument, assume losses to Kansas State on the road and to Kansas in the season finale at home. Thus, it will be imperative to beat Tech and Baylor in Columbia and Nebraska and Iowa State on the road. That would put Mizzou at 9-7 in the conference with a tie-breaker win over Baylor (6-5), currently in fourth place.

Baylor finishes conference play with home games against Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Texas and on the road against Missouri and Oklahoma State. The Bears should handle Tech, but will have their paws full with the other four. Assuming they go 2-3 and Missouri 4-2, the Tigers will finish fourth in the league and assure them of an NCAA berth. But (and it's a big but), if Mizzou drops two on the road, all bets are off.

The February 23 game in Columbia looms as the biggest game of the season for Mike Anderson's Tigers. If form holds, Baylor and Mizzou will be tied for fourth in the conference; and the winner will emerge with sole possession of that spot and holding the tie-breaker against the other.

K-State (5-6) is the wild card in this scenario. The Wildcats, fresh off a stunning upset of Kansas, finish the league stretch run at home against Oklahoma, Missouri and Iowa State and on the road against Nebraska and Texas. In a "best-case scenario" a 4-1 finish would tie them with MU, and who knows how the tiebreaker would be decided. MU could spoil an already rotting season for Frank Martin's Purples by beating them in Bramlege.

Of course, all this is speculation. Everything upon which Tiger fans pin their hopes depends on the Bengals winning at least two road wins before the conference tournament.

Only once has the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee taken a .500 team from the Big XII, although this year's expanded 68-team field may provide some leeway for Missouri should it finish 8-8 in conference play. If the Tigers finish below .500 and fail to make the finals of the Big XII tournament, they will fall to the NIT for the first time in four years.