MIZZOU UPDATE

FEBRUARY COUNTDOWN

With "Selection Sunday" less than a month away, the Missouri Tigers, seemingly comfortable in the rankings (20), the RPI (26) and Strength of Schedule (53), could play their way onto the proverbial "bubble" if they should stumble at home against Texas Tech or Baylor and fail to win at least two of three road games.

As it stands, the Tigers (5-5) are alone in fifth place in the Big XII Conference race. To move to fourth and a bye in the first round of the conference tournament, MU must go at least 4-2 in its final six regular-season games.

For the sake of argument, assume losses to Kansas State on the road and to Kansas in the season finale at home. Thus, it will be imperative to beat Tech and Baylor in Columbia and Nebraska and Iowa State on the road. That would put Mizzou at 9-7 in the conference with a tie-breaker win over Baylor (6-5), currently in fourth place.

Baylor finishes conference play with home games against Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Texas and on the road against Missouri and Oklahoma State. The Bears should handle Tech, but will have their paws full with the other four. Assuming they go 2-3 and Missouri 4-2, the Tigers will finish fourth in the league and assure them of an NCAA berth. But (and it's a big but), if Mizzou drops two on the road, all bets are off.

The February 23 game in Columbia looms as the biggest game of the season for Mike Anderson's Tigers. If form holds, Baylor and Mizzou will be tied for fourth in the conference; and the winner will emerge with sole possession of that spot and holding the tie-breaker against the other.

K-State (5-6) is the wild card in this scenario. The Wildcats, fresh off a stunning upset of Kansas, finish the league stretch run at home against Oklahoma, Missouri and Iowa State and on the road against Nebraska and Texas. In a "best-case scenario" a 4-1 finish would tie them with MU, and who knows how the tiebreaker would be decided. MU could spoil an already rotting season for Frank Martin's Purples by beating them in Bramlege.

Of course, all this is speculation. Everything upon which Tiger fans pin their hopes depends on the Bengals winning at least two road wins before the conference tournament.

Only once has the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee taken a .500 team from the Big XII, although this year's expanded 68-team field may provide some leeway for Missouri should it finish 8-8 in conference play. If the Tigers finish below .500 and fail to make the finals of the Big XII tournament, they will fall to the NIT for the first time in four years.