MARCH MADNESS: FIRST LOOK

BRACKETOLOGY 2011 [These picks were made Wednesday, February, 16, 2011 and do not reflect games played that day.]

With more than three weeks left in the college basketball season, the talking heads are busy speculating which teams are in and which are out of the NCAA Tournament. Knowing a near-infinite number of scenarios yet are possible, let me add my two cents to this exercise in futility.

 

First, a disclaimer: conference tournaments will, as usual, upset everyone's projections.

With a number of analysts still riding Michigan State's preseason expectations and suggesting the Spartans still have a chance to make the Big Dance, let's start with the Big Ten. Ohio State, Wisconsin and Purdue are locks. Illinois (16-9, 6-6), with tough road games against Ohio State, Michigan State (14-11, 6-7) and Purdue, must go at least 3-3 to finish at .500 in the league. Any slips will give Tom Izzo's squad, with the chance to go 4-1in its final five games, an opening. Saturday's heads-up game will probably determine which team makes the tournament.

Projection: 4 teams

 

The Big East is arguably the strongest conference this year with eight teams seen as sure nominees to March Madness: Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Villanova, St. John's, Connecticut and Syracuse. West Virginia and Cincinnati have high RPI's and schedule strengths but could miss out if conference tournaments skew the field. Look for the Bearcats to fall to the NIT.

Projection: 9 teams

 

The ACC is seen as down this year, with only Duke and North Carolina assured of invitations. Florida State and Virginia Tech are on the bubble but could make the dance with strong finishes.

Projection: 4 teams

 

 

Texas and Kansas may both be #1 seeds come "Selection Sunday". Barring a total collapse Texas A&M is in; but look for Missouri, Baylor and Kansas State to scrap for a date to the dance and to represent the Big XII. Oklahoma State has respectable RPI and SOS but isn't yet even on the bubble.

Projection: 6 teams

 

The Pac-10 is down this year; but Arizona, UCLA and Washington could make strong showings in the tournament. California has an outside chance, but if the Bears make it, they will probably knock out a deserving team from a "minor" conference.

Projection: 3 teams

 

The SEC East is loaded; and Florida, Vanderbilt are in, while Georgia and Kentucky still have a little work to do on their resumes. Alabama should make it, too, but either Mississippi or Tennessee will be bound for the NIT.

Projection: 6 teams

 

That takes care of the so-called "power conferences" which should land no fewer than 32 teams in the tournament.

 

Now for a look at the "mid-majors":

 

Xavier, Temple and Richmond should represent the Atlantic 10.

Projection: 3 teams (35)

 

Based on all criteria, the Colonial Conference should receive three bids: George Mason (19-5, 7-2),Old Dominion (21-6, 12-4) and Virginia Commonwealth (20-8, 12-4) all have solid credentials.

Projection: 3 teams (38)

 

Conference USA has four teams that should make the Dance: UTEP (19-5, 7-2) looks like a lock. Memphis (1-6, 7-3) will be in based upon their record, RPI, SOS and past performances. UAB (18-6, 8-3) and Southern Miss (18-6, 7-4) both deserve invitations, but one is likely to be overlooked.

Projection: 3 teams (41)

 

As usual the Missouri Valley, with three qualified teams (Missouri State, Wichita State and Northern Iowa) will get shorted, leaving one team to make a run in the NIT.

Projection: 2 teams (43)

 

While BYU and San Diego State battle for the Mountain West title and pending invitations to dance, Colorado State and UNLV will fight for a third berth.

Projection: 3 teams (46)

 

Princeton and Harvard are neck-and-neck in the Ivy League, but
only the winner will be invited.

Projection: 1 team (47)

 

Now let's look at the best of the rest:

 

Vermont (21-5, 12-1) is the cream of the crop in the America East.

Projection: 1 team (48)

 

Belmont leads the Atlantic Sun, but the winner of the conference tournament will likely be the sole representative come tourney time.

Projection: 1 team (49)

 

Look for Montana to come out of the Big Sky.

Projection: 1 team (50)

 

Coastal Carolina, if it wins the Big South tourney, could be a first round threat.

Projection: 1 team (51)

 

Long Beach State currently leads the Big West.

Projection: 1 team (52)

 

The Great West shows Utah Valley State at the top for now.

Projection: 1 team (53)

    :

Three teams from the Horizon League (Butler, Valparaiso and Cleveland State) are qualified but only two

will go if another team wins the league tourney.

Projection: 2 teams (54)

 

Fairfield (or the tourney winner) will be the MAAC rep.

Projection: 1 team (55)

 

Kent State tops the Mid-America list of candidates.

Projection: 1 team (56)

 

Hampton is currently atop the MEAC.

Projection: 1 team (57)

 

Long Island is tearing up the Northeast Conference.

Projection: 1 team (58)

 

Murray State and Morehead State are likely in a battle for the sole invitation from the Ohio Valley.

Projection: 1 team (59)

 

Look for Bucknell to come out of the Patriot League.

Projection: 1 team (60)

 

Charleston is leading the Southern Conference.

Projection: 1 team (61)

 

Look for the Southland's representative to be McNeese State.

Projection: 1 team (62)

 

The SWAC probably sends Texas Southern.

Projection: 1 team (63)

 

Oakland, out of the Summit League, beat Tennessee and nearly upset Michigan State and will be in, win or lose the league tournament. The Golden Grizzlies will be a tough seed in the first round.

Projection: 1 team (64)

 

Florida Atlantic currently leads the Sun Belt.

Projection: 1 team (65)

 

St. Mary's and Gonzaga are in a battle for the West Coast title and both should be invited.

Projection: 2 teams (67)

 

Look for Utah State to be the WAC invitee.

Projection: 1 team (68)

 

With a minimal amount of manipulation, those are my picks for invitations to the NCAA Tournament.

 

My list leaves New Mexico, Michigan State, California, Miami (Fla.), Dayton, Penn State, Minnesota and Duquesne on the outside looking in; but there is still room for some should the mid-level teams in the power conferences slide during the final weeks of the season. The Selection Committee is known to place added value to teams' records over the final 10 games, opening the door of opportunity for those on the "bubble" and slamming that same door on teams seemingly "in" at this stage of the season.