QUESTIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS
The NCAA tournament selections will be announced in less than 36 hours, and I still have some serious sorting to come up with my final projected bracket. Below are questions and comments affecting the inclusion and/or seeding of a number of at-large teams.
- Clemson beat Boston College in round two. Does that take BC out?
- Xavier lost in round two a 10 to Dayton. The loss probably means a lower seed.
- If Notre Dame wins two more, they are a #1 seed.
- Michigan and Michigan State advance to semifinals. Neither will have to play in.
- Illinois (19-13) still has better RPI + SOS than Michigan or Michigan State.
- MSU spanked Purdue. There's a need to look at Purdue's resume.
- Colorado should probably be higher than Missouri.
- A&M is really pretty good. Let's see how the Aggies do against Texas.
- Memphis/UTEP loser needs a further look.
- Bethune-Cookman is out. Hampton plays Saturday @ 1 p.m. for MEAC title.
- Is USC a tournament contender now? Does UCLA drop? I think so.
- Does Georgia's loss to Alabama shoot down the Bulldogs' hopes?
- Does Alabama move onto a line?
- How does Tennessee rate?
USC has some bad losses (Rider, Bradley and TCU) and some good wins (Texas, Tennessee and Arizona). The Trojans' RPI is 67 and a SOS is 47, which is better than Colorado, Temple, Clemson, Florida State, UTEP, Virginia Tech and St. Mary's. One could make a strong case for their inclusion.
Boston College beat VaTech twice but got wiped out by Clemson in ACC tournament. Other good wins: Texas A&M; bad losses: Yale, Rhode Island. Eagles are still under 100 (81) in total RPI and SOS. I may have to move them to a play-in, especially if UTEP beats Memphis in the C-USA tournament finals.
Purdue lost to Iowa in season finale. Other bad losses: none; Good wins: Wisconsin and Ohio State back to back. I may have to move them to #3.
Georgia's loss is problematic. With an RPI of 40 and a SOS of 39, they are stronger than many at-large teams already considered locks in my bracket (Texas A&M, Washington, Cincinnati, Temple, Colorado, St. Mary's, and UTEP). Good wins: Colorado, Kentucky, Tennessee; Bad losses: none. I'm going against Lunardi here and keeping the Bulldogs "in".
Colorado State (19-11), which I have as a "last four out" team has an RPI + SOS total of 77, better than Xavier, BC, A&M, Memphis, Marquette, Washington, Cincinnati, George Mason, Va Tech and Temple. They have one bad loss to Air Force but no signature wins. If Memphis beats UTEP today, they could make a "play-in" game.
Tennessee finished at only 18-14 but played one of the toughest schedules in the country (SOS of 3) with good wins over Belmont (twice), Missouri State, VCU, Villanova, Pitt, Memphis and Vanderbilt (twice). They did lose to both Alabama (OT) and Georgia, two teams that are definitely on the bubble. Right now I have them as a #9, but may wait until Sunday afternoon to finalize their fate.
Alabama is currently "out" of my bracket. I just can't find enough in their resume to put them "in".
Memphis (24-9) has good RPI and SOS factors (23 + 50 = 73) but lacks any particularly good wins. They have two bad losses (SMU and Rice, both conference games on the road). Their overall Power Rating (RPI + SOS) is better than that of Missouri, Xavier, Georgia, BC, Texas A&M, Marquette, Washington, Cincinnati, George Mason, Florida State, Colorado, Virginia Tech St. Mary's and UTEP. Win or lose the C-USA tournament, I think they're invited to my tournament.
UTEP has the lowest power rating (177) of any at-large team in my bracket. I have them playing in as a 12 seed, but will bump them if they do not win the C-USA tourney. If they win the tourney, they will bump VaTech, with the second-lowest PR (RPI + SOS) among the at-large teams I have selected.
Tennessee's record is nothing to write home about, but they have several good wins and a strong PR. They are going to Don's Big Dance.
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