BUILD-A-BRACKET (CHAPTER 5)

 

REFINERY WEEK-THURSDAY

 

Halfway through the bracket-building process, the regimen can become tedious; but it is more important than ever to closely examine the last games of the regular season and the start of conference tournaments.

 

Listed below is the data used to analyze and juggle earlier picks:

 

A. WEDNESDAY'S KEY GAMES

    UNC (72) V FLA ST (70): Surging 'Heels win barnburner on Barnes' three with 3.1 seconds.

    CLEMSON (59) V DUKE (70): Blue Devils will meet Tarheels for ACC regular season title.

    MARYLAND (66) V MIAMI (80): The Terps are NIT-bound.

    UCONN (56) V WEST VA (65): Mountaineers looked the part; and UConn drops to 9^th in Big East.

    PITT (66) V USF (50): Panthers lock up double bye in Big East.

    CINCINNATI (67) V MARQUETTE (60): Bearcats gain edge over team with similar credentials.

    TEXAS A&M (51) V KANSAS (64): KU clinches tie for 7^th straight BIG XII title with ugly win.

    COLORADO (90) V IOWA STATE (95): Buffaloes' NCAA bid suffers a blow.

     XAVIER (68) V CHARLOTTE (48): Musketeers go 14-1 to win fifth straight A-10 title.

    GEORGIA (73) V LSU (53): Bulldogs notch 20^th win, add to credentials.

    NEW MEXICO (82) V BYU (64): Brandon Davies' dismissal looms large for Cougars' #1 bid.

    UAB (67) V SO. MISS (66): Blazers pad NCAA resume with road win over closest conference foe.

    MEMPHIS (57) V EAST CAROLINA (68): Another Tiger road loss probably cost them an invite.    

    MARSHALL (74) V UTEP (82): Miners keep NCAA hopes alive and well.

    UTAH STATE (58) V NEW MEXICO STATE (54): #21 Utah State pads resume in WAC.

    MINNESOTA (57) V NORTHWESTERN (68): Gophers burrow into the NIT.

 

B. THURSDAY'S TOURNAMENT GAMES

    MISSOURI VALLEY

        SIU V ILLINOIS STATE

        DRAKE V BRADLEY

    HORIZON

        CLEVELAND ST V WRIGHT STATE

        VALPO V DETROIT

    BIG SOUTH

        HIGH POINT V UNC-ASHEVILLE

        VMI V COASTAL CAROLINA

 

C. THURSDAY NIGHT'S KEY GAMES (All games EST)

    ST. JOHN'S V SETON HALL (7 p.m. ESPN2): Red Storm seeks 8^th straight Big East win.

    TENNSSEE V. SOUTH CAROLINA (7 p.m. ESPN): Vols need to augment NCAA resume.

    UCLA V WASHINGTON (9 p.m. ESPN2): Both teams look to enhance NCAA seed.

    

D. BRACKET REVISION AND BUBBLES

    PENN STATE OUT: Conference record eliminates the Nittany Lions.

    COLORADO OUT: Though never "in",
The Buffaloes short-lived hopes died in Ames.

    ILLINOIS OUT: The Illini just didn't perform up to expectations. Lost to Missouri.

    MEMPHIS ON THE BUBBLE? (21-9, 9-6, RPI=34, SOS=40)

    VCU IN? BETTER THAN UTEP

    VALPO IN? ALSO BETTER THAN UTEP

    HARVARD? How do you keep them out?

    WICHITA STATE? Better than many going dancing.

    

 

Perusing my "Bubbles" as they fall from grace, more value accrues to those teams with the strongest RPI and SOS. Conference records still carry some weight, depending on the overall strength of a given league, but the relative merits of teams just "in" or "out" becomes marginal.

 

For example, Virginia Commonwealth, overlooked for the most part in any previous post, is 21-10 overall and 12-6 in a strong Colonial Conference. Their RPI is now at 63, and their SOS is 107. Compare those numbers to those of UTEP, (one of my "Last Four In"): 22-8 overall; 10-5 in Conference USA;

RPI=70; SOS=121. With similar records, VCU looks to have the better credentials and deserves a longer look.

 

Wichita State (23-7, 14-4, RPI=50, SOS=100) plays in the Missouri Valley, seen as "down" this year; but the Shockers' raw numbers are better than either VCU or UTEP. If they don't win the conference tournament, I think they deserve an at-large bid.

 

Harvard (21-5, 10-2, RPI=44, SOS=173) is in the same boat unless they beat Princeton Saturday, which would put Princeton
(22-5, 10-1, RPI=51, SOS=188) in jeopardy despite an RPI higher than many at-large teams penciled "in". The strength of the rest of the Ivy League is hurting both teams; but, on paper, they both have better numbers than our target school UTEP.

 

Right now Harvard, Wichita State and Richmond (23-7, 12-3 A10, RPI=61, SOS=139) are the next three in. Two of them are moving up to take the place of Illinois and Minnesota. Richmond is the odd man out, pending further developments.

 

And there are still 10 days (and countless scenarios) to crunch the numbers before finalizing a bracket that will mean absolutely nothing when the official bracket is announced!