NEWS AND NOTES
The Missouri Tigers, once living on Easy Street, have moved to Bubble Town. Last night's loss at Nebraska may not have killed Mizzou's hopes for a bid to the Big Dance; but there's a chance the invitation could get lost in the mail. Cornhusker Coach Doc Sadler still thinks two more wins will get his team an invitation to the NCAA tournament. He's not in the Big Ten yet. Sorry, Bugeaters, but it will take a deep run in the Big XII tournament before the committee takes you seriously.
If I had to submit a Final Bracket today, MU would still be in, but Illinois and Penn State would be out. In their place in "play-in" games would be Wichita State and Cleveland State. I know the Illini and Nittany Lions have stronger schedules, but I cannot justify including teams with sub-.500 conference records.
No sooner do the "talking heads" start touting Brigham Young as a #1 NCAA tournament seed, the team dismisses starting forward Brandon Davies for violation of BYU's code of conduct. (He was probably caught drinking a cup of coffee.) While the Cougars probably have a resume' worthy of a top seed, I'll argue that Kansas, Ohio State, Pitt and Duke can match it. Additionally, there is just not much difference between a #1 and #2. With two weeks left before Selection Sunday, BYU still has a chance to prove me wrong, depending on how well (or poorly) the Panthers and Blue Devils fare.
By that same reasoning, there isn't much difference between a #2 and a #3 seed; and I'm leaning toward flip-flopping Texas and Notre Dame on those lines. Notre Dame's thrashing of Villanova and Texas' loss to Kansas State lead me to believe the Irish are starting to peak, while the Longhorns may have over-grazed their range.
Frank Martin's K-State Wildcats, after dropping like a rock from early season polls, also seem to have found their stride as the season winds down, notching wins over Kansas and Texas in the past 10 days. I have them as sixth seed but will have to move them up if they continue ripping up the Big XII when the conference tourney starts.
Alabama, leading the SEC West, needed a big win against a power team but blew that chance last night against Florida. The Crimson Tide, barring an SEC tournament championship, just doesn't have the credentials to warrant an at-large bid this year. Meanwhile the Gators have solidified a high seed and are moving up in my revised bracket. Look for them to be placed on the #3 line, replacing Arizona, which is slipping to a #4.
Kentucky and Vanderbilt battled to the wire last night in Lexington with the Wildcats edging the Commodores, 68-66. With the win, I think John Calipari's 'Cats (6) moved just ahead of Vandy (5) in my bracket, at least until their next games.
Boston College, needing to bolster its tournament qualifications, slaughtered Virginia Tech last night in Blacksburg for a season sweep of the Hokies. With both teams on or near the proverbial "bubble", the Eagles' win gives them a decided edge over their ACC rival in the selection process. BC is ahead of VaTech in league play, the RPI and SOS but lacks any signature wins. Seth Greenberg's perennial bubble boys need to notch a couple of ACC tournament wins to stay in the picture.
The Baylor Bears' bubble burst last night in Stillwater with an 11-point loss to Oklahoma State. Both teams now must win the Big XII tournament to make the NCAA field. Of course that is not possible.
The Horizon League tournament started last night, and Cleveland State and Valparaiso won first round games. Butler and Milwaukee start tournament play tonight after receiving first round byes. Cleveland State, Valpo and Butler have always been in the mix for an invitation to the NCAA tournament; but, for the most part, Milwaukee, winner of the regular season (by way of tie-breaker) has been overlooked. I have Butler "playing in" with Cleveland State and Valpo on the outside. The winner of the conference tournament gets an automatic bid. The question is: will another team be invited to dance? Cleveland State (39) and Butler (45) have strong RPI's, but neither has a particularly strong SOS. Butler has played a strong schedule but lost to all the big names except Florida State. The Bulldogs beat Cleveland State twice in league play, split with Valpo but lost twice to Milwaukee. Based on its complete application, Butler should get a nod from the selection committee, but there may not be enough room at the party for another marginal at-large team.
The Big South Conference tournament kicked off Tuesday night, and regular season champ Coastal Carolina won its first round game against Gardner-Webb, 83-72. The Chanticleers next stop on the way to a tournament title and NCAA bid is Thursday at home against VMI. Only one team from the Big South will be invited, most likely as a 16th seed. The Chanticleers will be the only team with even a snowball's chance in hell of becoming the first #16 to win an NCAA tournament game.
TONIGHT ON TV (All times Eastern)
(16) UConn v. West Virginia (7 p.m. ESPN2): A Big East battle to remain in contention for a conference tournament bye.
Maryland v. Miami (Fla.) (7 p.m. ESPNU): Maryland needs to win out for any chance at an invitation to the NCAA dance.
(13) North Carolina v. Florida State (7 p.m. ESPN): Can the improving Tarheels win in Tallahassee where Duke lost?
Clemson v. (4) Duke (9 p.m. ESPN): Senior Night at Cameron against a team still waiting for a date to dance.
(24) Texas A&M v. (2) Kansas (9 p.m. ESPN2): Mark Turgeon takes his Aggies on the road hoping to ruin his alma mater's Big XII title chances.
(4) Pitt v. South Florida (9 p.m. ESPNU): The Panthers take to the road looking to stay atop the Big East.
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