BUILD-A-BRACKET (VOL. 4)

THE BUBBLES

 

As part of Bracketology 307, this week will be devoted to refining my initial bracket and analyzing the teams still needing improved resumes to earn invitations to the NCAA tournament field.

 

[Editor's Note: At this time the NCAA's Official Bracket lists two Round One games to determine two #16 seeds; but the other two "play-in" games are listed as "TBD" (To Be Determined). None of the so- called "First Four" games are slotted by region. My initial bracket puts one #16 play-in game in the East Region and one in the Southwest. My other two play-in games are for 12^th seeds in the East and in the West. These slots will remain unchanged until the NCAA's Official Bracket is finalized.]

 

Now for a look at teams still "on the bubble" (listed by current RPI):

 

IN FOR NOW

Cincinnati: (22-7, 9-7 Big East) RPI = 37. A win tomorrow against fellow bubble team Marquette could put the Bearcats in ahead of the Warriors. Good Wins: Georgetown, Dayton, Xavier; Bad Losses: None.

Current Status: In as a 10 Seed in the Southeast Region.

 

Boston College: (17-11, 7-7 ACC) RPI = 46. BC's RPI and Strength of Schedule (SOS = 18) are all that keep the Eagles in the hunt for March Madness. A second win tonight against Virginia Tech could give them the nod over the Hokies. Good Wins: Bucknell; Bad Losses: Rhode Island. Current Status: In as an 8^th seed in the East.

 

Florida State: (20-8; 10-4 ACC) RPI = 47. The Seminoles win over Duke is carrying them for now; but, with an SOS of 88, it might not be enough for the Selection Committee. Good Wins: Duke; Bad Losses: Auburn. Current Status: In as an 11 Seed in the Southwest.

 

Marquette: (18-11; 9-7 Big East) RPI = 52. Beating Cincinnati at home Wednesday would enhance the Warriors chances for an invitation. Good Wins: West Virginia, Notre Dame, Syracuse, UConn; Bad Losses: None. Current Status: In as 9^th seed in the Southwest Region.

 

LAST FOUR IN

Butler: (21-9, 13-5 Horizon) RPI = 45. With the conference season over, the Bulldogs must put in a solid showing in the conference tournament to ensure an invitation to the Big Dance. Good Wins: Florida State, Valparaiso. Bad Losses: Wright State, Youngstown State. Current Status: In at an 11 in the West.

 

Virginia Tech: (19-8, 9-5 ACC) RPI = 53. Another ACC team with a big win over Duke, Seth Greenberg's Hokies should lock up an invitation by winning twice this week. Good Wins: Duke; Bad Losses: Virginia, Georgia Tech. Current Status: In as the 11^th seed in the Southwest Region.

 

Penn State: (15-12, 8-8 Big 10) RPI = 56. The Nittany Lions' high SOS (9^th) and a signature win against Wisconsin are all that is keeping them alive in my bracket. Good Wins: Wisconsin. Bad Losses: Maine.

Current Status: In as a "First Four" pick to play in for the 12^th seed in the West.

 

UTEP: (21-8, 9-5 Conference USA) RPI = 70. The Miners lack any signature wins and are as close to "out" as any team in my bracket. Good Wins: Michigan; Bad Losses: Pacific. Current Status: In as the 12^th seed in the Southwest Region.

 

FIRST FOUR OUT

Cleveland State: (24-7, 13-5 Horizon) RPI = 39. Despite leading the Horizon League, the Vikings lost twice to Butler, putting them in an awkward position. Two good wins in the conference tournament might be enough to edge another bubble team. Good Wins: Valpo; Bad Losses: Detroit, Milwaukee. Current Status: Out.

 

Colorado State: (18-11, 8-6 Mountain West) RPI = 47. On a 3-game skid, the Rams have played themselves out of the NCAA tournament. The only potential saving grace would be a win on the road against San Diego State. Good Wins: Southern Miss; Bad Losses: Air Force, Sam Houston. Current Status: Out.

 

Minnesota: (17-11, 6-10 Big 10) RPI = 60. Losers of seven of their last eight, the Gophers shouldn't even be in the conversation. Current Status: Way Out.

 

Baylor: (18-10, 7-7 Big XII) RPI = 77. Scott Drew's Bears have underachieved this year but could move up with a strong run to end the season, including a couple of wins in the Big XII Tournament. Good Wins: Texas A&M; Bad Losses: Oklahoma, Texas Tech. Current Status: Out but harboring slim hope.

 

NOT INVITED (RPI IN PARENTHESES)

Southern Miss (40): faces the challenge of jumping over UAB, Memphis and UTEP in Conference USA.

Harvard (42): will be in with a win Saturday against Princeton.

Marshall (54): rowing against the tide of quality teams in Conference USA.

Richmond (61): not completely out of the picture with strong Atlantic 10 tourney run.

Virginia Commonwealth (63): could jump George Mason or ODU with Colonial tourney win over either.

Dayton (66): too many teams to pass without A10 tournament title.

Colorado (76): late run came too late for the Buffaloes.

Nebraska (82): bubble talk after Texas win was premature.

Alabama (86): weak SEC West has hurt the Crimson Tide.

There just doesn't seem to be enough room in the expanded field to accommodate these teams headed for the NIT.